195
FXUS61 KALY 252328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
728 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of much needed wet days will give way to dry
conditions for the end of the workweek and weekend with seasonable
temperatures. The next stretch of dry weather will be much shorter
than this last spell with shower chances increasing again Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Area of rain over the region with the best coverage along and
north of I-90 but scattered showers are also south of I-90.
There have been a few rumbles of thunder in the embedded heavier
elements in the western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

The back edge is about to enter the western Mohawk Valley and
southwestern Adirondacks but will feed back in later tonight.
More rain will also develop in southern areas and all areas
will see measurable rain tonight with the most, again, along and
north of I-90 to southern VT, some locally heavy by daybreak.

Just minor adjustments to temperatures, rain chances and sky
cover through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Moisture surges into the region from the south and west as part
of a fetch extending north and east from the Gulf embedded
within the southwest flow of the leading edge of a mid to upper-
level trough whose axis has dug deep into the Mississippi
Valley. A surface low pressure system has become situated in
southeast Ontario, extending a warm front south into the Ohio
Valley just west of the western border of New York State with a
northern stream shortwave overhead. Additional rounds of
showers, already underway for portions of the Eastern Catskills;
western Mohawk Valley; and Mid-Hudson Valley, are therefore
anticipated into tonight as upper-level divergence increases
with the southeastward track and intensification of the upper-
level shortwave and surface convergence and warm air advection
increases ahead of the warm front.

Shower coverage will continue to increase from southwest to
northeast through the overnight, becoming widespread with
embedded heavier downpours in regions of higher terrain where
orographic effects will enhance lift. However, some heavier
showers will be possible in the Mohawk and Upper- Hudson
Valley/Capital District as well given the moist environment and
favorable synoptic environment. Low temperatures will remain on
the mild side with extensive cloud cover inhibiting radiational
cooling. Temperatures will only fall to the low to upper 50s
with pockets of upper 40s possible above 1500 ft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By tomorrow morning, the aforementioned shortwave looks to
deepen such that it closes off into an upper-level low just
south of the James Bay. Additional moderate showers are possible
given the intensification and subsequent enhancement of
divergence aloft. Likewise, with the surface low tracking north
and east into western Quebec, the warm front will swiftly track
through the region throughout the day followed in close
succession by a weak cold front whose forcing could also
contribute to some additional moderate to locally heavy
downpours tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon.
Despite the expectation for moderate to heavy rainfall at times,
there are no concerns of river or flash flooding given the
recent dry spell.

Latest CAMs indicate a line of potential convection developing
tomorrow afternoon and tracking through the Capital District
south and east into tomorrow evening with the aforementioned
cold front. With extensive cloud cover, it is likely that there
will not be sufficient instability to generate widespread
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. However, with cooler
temperatures aloft and some very modest instability (generally
less than 500 J/kg), it is possible that some rumbles develop
within the line of showers. Included slight chance of thunder
south and east of Albany to account for this possibility. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s to low 70s
with pockets of low 60s across regions of higher terrain.

The closed low, with fast flow aloft, will track quickly east
toward southeast Quebec, forcing the quick track of the cold
front through the region. By tomorrow evening, the cold front
looks to have completed its track through the region with dry
conditions following close behind. In fact, much of the
overnight period tomorrow night appears to be dry. Low
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than the previous
night with upper 40s to mid 50s anticipated across much of the
region. Some isolated spots of upper 50s are possible within the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County.

Dry conditions will then be maintained Friday into Saturday as
heights increase with upper-level ridging building in from the
west. Surface high pressure, in tandem, will nose in from the
southwest and remain in place through the remainder of the short
term period. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will largely
range from the upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of mid 60s
across higher terrain regions. Low temperatures Friday night
will range from the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low and associated cold front will exit Friday night, and
some clouds and a lingering isolated shower are expected in the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT. By Saturday more of a slow clearing and
drying trend with intervals of clouds and sun. Highs Saturday around
70 to mid 70s with some upper 60s in higher elevations.

Upper ridging gradually builds in from the west Sunday through
Monday.  Partly to mostly sunny with highs Sunday around 70 to mid
70s and 60s higher elevations. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 70s
with around 70 higher terrain.

Northern stream energy approaches and drops out of Canada along with
an associated warm advection ahead of it Tuesday night. Isolated
showers by Tuesday afternoon and evening, then increasing coverage
of showers through Wednesday with the approaching cold front. Highs
Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s and mid 60s higher terrain.
Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s to lower 60s
higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Area of rain with VFR visibilities and mainly MVFR ceilings
will continue through this evening. Rain coverage and intensity
will increase by about 06Z-09Z, when ceilings will drop to IFR
at all TAF sites and visibilities will straddle MVFR/IFR with
periods of moderate rain. The rain should become lighter by
about 16Z-17Z at KALB and KGFL, but visibilities and ceilings
will probably stay IFR through the morning and afternoon ad KPOU
and KPSF as a cold front slowly drops south.

The winds will be east to southeast at less 7 Kt from the south
to southeast tonight. Winds at around 2000 feet will increase
to 35-40 KT from the south toward 06Z. Low Level wind shear was
added to KGFL/KPSF/KPOU until about 16Z. We may need to add
KALB with later TAF issuances. The winds will be southerly at
5-10 KT in late Thursday morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/NAS
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS