150
FXUS61 KALY 251759
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of much needed wet days will give way to dry
conditions for the end of the workweek and weekend with seasonable
temperatures. The next stretch of dry weather will be much shorter
than this last spell with shower chances increasing again Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 145 PM EDT...Scattered showers are tracking
through portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-Hudson
Valley this afternoon ahead of the next widespread batch of rain
that remains upstream to our southwest. Low pressure has drifted
into southeast Ontario with its attendant warm front extending
south into the Ohio Valley, still west of the western New York
State border. Cloud coverage remains extensive across the
region with increased moisture encroaching from the west.
Temperatures have increased only modestly as a result with mid
to upper 50s across much of the area and pockets of low 60s in
the valleys. Minor adjustments were made with this update to
maintain consistency with latest obs and trends, but aside from
these, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below for details.

Previous Discussion
Early morning radar imagery showing scattered shwrs across the
westerly Mohawk Vly and southern Adirondacks, with additional
returns beginning to develop over the western Catskills. Activity
will continue sliding to the northeast this morning for a few
hours before gradually decreasing in coverage towards daybreak.
Following this, expect much of the fcst area to see dry
conditions through mid morning through early afternoon, before
the next round of shwrs begins advancing north towards our area
late in the day. This second round will be more widespread in
nature as strong upper support in the form of a well defined
upper wave begins approaching from the northeast. As a result,
have increased pops across the board tonight, and again through
much of the day on Thursday as main cold front begins to slide
across the area. HRRR and 3K NAM show developing convection
possible across southern zones during the late morning and
afternoon on Thursday, however minimal CAPE should keep thunder
activity fairly sparse in coverage. After a prolonged dry spell,
much beneficial rain will be had over the area, with widespread
0.75 to 1.25 inch rainfall totals expected. For now, the
heaviest am amounts are expected to fall along and north of the
I-90 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Hydro issues
are not expected due to very dry antecedent conditions. With
clouds and rain expected across the area today and tomorrow,
temperatures will be on the cooler side with low to upper 60s
expected today, with slightly warmer temps expected tomorrow as
warm air lifts north ahead of cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rain comes to an end Thursday night with high pressure then
expected to bring clearing skies and dry conditions through much
of the upcoming weekend and early next week. Ridging aloft will
become more pronounced as we move into the latter stages of the
weekend as the remnants of now Tropical Storm Helene impact the
Tennessee Vly and Southeast. This should result in near to
slightly above normal temperatures this weekend into early next
week with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s, with lows
falling into the during the day upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging begins to break down by the beginning of next week as
northern stream wave begins digging into the northern Great
Lakes. Despite this, dry weather will continue through Monday
before shwrs are once again possible Tuesday and Tuesday night
as main cold front approaches from the west. High temps will
remain at or slightly above normal with mid/upper 60s to low 70s
expected during the day, and upper 40s to low 50s expected
during the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR/MVFR conditions this afternoon with
cigs in the 2-3 kft AGL range at KPSF and 3.5-5 kft AGL range at
KALB/KGFL/KPOU. Another round of showers and light rain will
move in the terminals sites between 20Z/WED and 00Z/THU with
conditions lowering to widespread MVFR. The light rain will
persist until 04Z-07Z/WED and then a surge of heavier rain will
lower cigs/vsbys to low MVFR/IFR levels, as a wave of low
pressure move across the region through daybreak.

Conditions may stay IFR until about 16Z/THU but lingering
drizzle and light rain will continue with low MVFR and spotty
IFR conditions.

The winds will be east to southeast at less than 10 KT this
afternoon. The winds will generally be under 7 KT from the
south to southeast tonight. 2 kft AGL winds will increase to
35-40 KT from the south toward 06Z/THU. Low Level wind shear
was added to KGFL/KPSF/KPOU until about 16Z/THU. We may need to
add KALB with later TAF issuances. The winds will be southerly
at 5-10 KT in the late morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. &&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/Gitro
SHORT TERM...Gitro
LONG TERM...Gitro
AVIATION...Wasula