180
FXUS61 KALY 230552
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
152 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and muggy through this evening with
some showers and thunderstorms around.  Any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.  With the warm
and humid air mass still in place, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, with some of those
storms potentially being severe.  A few showers may linger into
Monday, but cooler and less humid air will briefly be returning to
the region, before another warm and humid air mass returns towards
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:45 AM EDT...Line of storms that formed
earlier has now made it off to our east, except in Litchfield
County where another half hour to hour of stratiform rain is
expected behind the main convective line. We are seeing a few
additional cells popping up in the western Mohawk Valley and
southern ADKs in the vicinity of the frontal boundary where
there is some localized low-level convergence, but there is not
much instability here, so not expecting these storms to become
severe. Otherwise, mainly dry through the next few hours before
another batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracks into
our northern areas around daybreak with another upper impulse.
It remains warm and muggy with with lows in the 60s to around 70
tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus will be around through
shortly after sunrise with abundant low-level moisture in place.
Mainly just minor updates to the forecast with this ESTF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, any fog or low clouds should dissipate shortly after
sunrise. The frontal boundary that was over the area on Saturday
will have lifted northward as a warm front, putting our entire
area into the warm sector.  This will allow for a mostly sunny
morning and temps will rapidly warm up across the entire area.
Most areas will be reaching well into the 80s on Sunday, with
some low 90s in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region on
southward. In addition, dewpoints will be well into the 70s
across much of the area. This will result in heat index values
reaching 95 to 100 degrees across the Capital Region, mid Hudson
Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, where a Heat Advisory will
be in effect due to an increased risk of heat related illnesses.

With the warm and humid air mass in place, MLCAPE is expected to
increase to 1500-2500 J/kg across the entire area. As a strong
disturbance moves across the Great Lakes and a surface cold
front approaches from the west, 0-6 km bulk shear will be
increasing through day to about 30 to 40 kts by the afternoon
hours. With the warm front nearby, low level helicity will be
rather high as well, with 0-1 km values in the 100-200 m2/s2
according to the 12z SPC HREF, although the highest values of
shear/helicity may be just northeast of the area across VT/NH.

CAMs suggest that a few rounds of broken lines of convection
will be moving across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for severe
weather, with an enhanced risk across northeastern areas (closed
to the best shear/helicity). Damaging winds and heavy downpours
are the main threats, but hail and a tornado or two will be
possible as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down on Sunday night
as the frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east. This
will allow for a much cooler and less humid air mass to move
into the area for Monday. Temps will only be in the 70s on
Monday and dewpoints will be coming down through the day. There
still could be a few spotty showers on Monday with the upper
level trough overhead, but no strong storms are expected. Clouds
should finally be clearing out by Monday night with lows down
into the 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with high pressure in
control. With plenty of sun expected and temps aloft warming up,
temps will be above normal on Tuesday with highs well into the
80s.

By Wednesday, another cold front will be approaching the area.
It will be another hot and humid air mass ahead of the front, so
heat advisory criteria could be met in some valley areas with
highs into the low 90s. In addition, another round of showers
and t-storms will be possible ahead of the front for late in the
day and some strong storms will be possible once again.

Dry weather looks to return behind this front for the late week.
It will somewhat less humid and not as hot behind the front as
well, although temps may still wind up averaging above normal
with highs into the 80s. Overnight lows will be more tolerable
in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z MON...a warm front will move across the region this
morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A
prefrontal trough and cold front will move across eastern NY and
western New England this afternoon through tonight with some strong
to severe thunderstorms and scattered showers.

Conditions vary from IFR levels at KGFL/KPSF this morning with cigs
500-900 ft AGL with vsbys MVFR to MVFR/VFR levels at KALB/KPOU.
Expecting widespread IFR/low MVFR cigs to continue this morning as
the warm front slowly lifts northward.  Some showers or isolated
thunderstorm can not be ruled out.  The vsbys may briefly dip to IFR
levels at KGFL/KPSF.

The mist/stratus should burn off between 12Z-14Z/SUN at the majority
of the TAF sites with it perhaps lingering at KPSF with MVFR cigs
until 16Z/noon.  A pre frontal disturbance may quickly fire some
strong to severe thunderstorms between 16Z-19Z near KGFL/KALB and
then 18Z-21Z for KPSF/KPOU.  We used 5 or 6 hour PROB40 groups to
focus on these potential strong to severe thunderstorms with wind
gusts to 35 KT and IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs.

VFR/MVFR conditions may return 22Z/SUN to 01Z/MON in the wake of the
first disturbance.  A cold front will approach for the nighttime
period and we placed VCSH groups to later refine the
shower/thunderstorm threat tonight with later TAF issuances.

Winds will be light and variable in direction at 6 KT or less or
calm.  The winds become south at 10 to 15 KT in the late morning
into the afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT.  Winds veer to the
south/southwest tonight at 8-15 KT.

The winds may vary in direction or be gusty to 25-40 KT with any
thunderstorm.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ064>066.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Wasula