613
FXUS61 KALY 251128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
728 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of dry weather will finally come to an end
today and tonight as widespread rains move of the region. Dry
will will return for the weekend, with additional chances for
rain then expected by Tuesday and Tuesday night of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
605 AM Update... Quick update this morning to account for
latest radar trends which show developing shwr activity across
the mid Hudson Vly and western Berkshires. Have increased pops
across these areas as radar showing fairly decent returns.
Remainder of fcst is on track.

Previous Discussion
Early morning radar imagery showing scattered shwrs across the
westerly Mohawk Vly and southern Adirondacks, with additional
returns beginning to develop over the western Catskills. Activity
will continue sliding to the northeast this morning for a few
hours before gradually decreasing in coverage towards daybreak.
Following this, expect much of the fcst area to see dry
conditions through mid morning through early afternoon, before
the next round of shwrs begins advancing north towards our area
late in the day. This second round will be more widespread in
nature as strong upper support in the form of a well defined
upper wave begins approaching from the northeast. As a result,
have increased pops across the board tonight, and again through
much of the day on Thursday as main cold front begins to slide
across the area. HRRR and 3K NAM show developing convection
possible across southern zones during the late morning and
afternoon on Thursday, however minimal CAPE should keep thunder
activity fairly sparse in coverage. After a prolonged dry spell,
much beneficial rain will be had over the area, with widespread
0.75 to 1.25 inch rainfall totals expected. For now, the
heaviest am amounts are expected to fall along and north of the
I-90 corridor, with lesser amounts to the south. Hydro issues
are not expected due to very dry antecedent conditions. With
clouds and rain expected across the area today and tomorrow,
temperatures will be on the cooler side with low to upper 60s
expected today, with slightly warmer temps expected tomorrow as
warm air lifts north ahead of cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rain comes to an end Thursday night with high pressure then
expected to bring clearing skies and dry conditions through much
of the upcoming weekend and early next week. Ridging aloft will
become more pronounced as we move into the latter stages of the
weekend as the remnants of now Tropical Storm Helene impact the
Tennessee Vly and Southeast. This should result in near to
slightly above normal temperatures this weekend into early next
week with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s, with lows
falling into the during the day upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridging begins to break down by the beginning of next week as
northern stream wave begins digging into the northern Great
Lakes. Despite this, dry weather will continue through Monday
before shwrs are once again possible Tuesday and Tuesday night
as main cold front approaches from the west. High temps will
remain at or slightly above normal with mid/upper 60s to low 70s
expected during the day, and upper 40s to low 50s expected
during the overnight periods.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mixed VFR/MVFR flying conditions expected
through much of the day as rain showers track northeastward across
the region. An initial batch of light showers will continue to
affect ALB/GFL/PSF through 14-15Z Wed, although precipitation rates
will likely be light enough to maintain VFR vsbys. A break in the
shower coverage from late this morning through the mid-afternoon
will fill in again after 21-24Z Wed with more widespread rain. Both
cigs/vsbys will trend downward to MVFR/IFR overnight at all
terminals, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds this morning at GFL will increase out of
the southeast after 15Z Wed. Otherwise, southeast winds at 5-10 kt
are expected at all terminals through much of the period. Wind
speeds will begin to lessen across the region after 00-06Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gitro
NEAR TERM...Gitro
SHORT TERM...Gitro
LONG TERM...Gitro
AVIATION...Picard