986
FXUS61 KALY 221415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1015 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and muggy through this evening with
some showers and thunderstorms around.  Any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.  With the warm
and humid air mass still in place, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, with some of those
storms potentially being severe.  A few showers may linger into
Monday, but cooler and less humid will briefly be returning to the
region, before another warm and humid air mass returns towards the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM EDT...A surface boundary is draped across the
Mohawk Valley and Saratoga Region. North of this boundary, lots
of cloud cover is in place, along with temps in the 60s and
dewpoints mainly in the 60s as well. South of the boundary,
there are more breaks of sun, with temps well into the 70s and
dewpoints around 70 F as well. This front is expected to start
slowly drifting northward a warm front through the rest of the
day.

Right along the front, a batch of showers and embedded
thunderstorms is heading eastward across the western
Adirondacks, western and central Mohawk Valley and Sacandaga
Area. MRMS has shown some rainfall rates in excess of one inch
per hour as this activity moved across Oneida County and into
southwestern Herkimer County. Most of the lightning activity is
within some of taller storms on the southern side of the
convective cluster. Over the next few hours, this activity will
continue to slide eastward towards northern parts of the Capital
Region and the Lake George Saratoga Region and eventually
western New England. The threat for severe weather seems minimal
with this activity, but cloud-to-ground lightning and downpours
capable of producing ponding in urban and poor drainage areas
looks to occur. This activity should be clearing off to the east
of our area by the early to mid afternoon hours.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop with
daytime heating for areas in the warm sector to the south of the
boundary for late today. CAPE values increase to 1000-1500 J/kg
for areas south of the frontal boundary. Shear isn`t very
impressive, but is slightly higher than the past few days at 25
to perhaps 30 kt for the 0-6 km layer. With a similar
environment to that of the past few days, most storms will
probably be of the pulse- variety, but the increased shear may
help to form some loosely organized clusters as cold pools
congeal. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible, with
the primary threat being damaging winds as low- level lapse
rates should be steep once again. North of the warm front,
instability will be lower, so while there could be a few rumbles
of thunder the probability for severe weather is lower.
Accordingly, SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather today
for areas mainly along and south of I-90.

Any storms today could produce locally heavy rain with PWATs
remaining at 1.6 to 1.9" and cloud depths of 10-12 kft. With
flow parallel to the low-level boundary, some training and/or
backbuilding of storms is possible, especially with slow MBE
vectors. WPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, which seems
appropriate given scattered nature of storms this afternoon.

Today will remain quite hot for areas south of the warm front
where highs will climb well into the 80s to low 90s. Areas north
of the warm front will remain slightly cooler with high terrain
areas topping out in the 70s with 80s for the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
**Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County,
 CT through 8PM Sunday.**

Convection should die off after sunset with the loss of diurnal
heating. However, for areas from the ADKs through southern VT,
some lingering showers will remain possible overnight in the
vicinity of the warm front as it continues to lift northwards.
Some embedded rumbles of thunder are also possible with
showalter values of 0 to -2. It will remain quite warm and
muggy, with lows in the mid and upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog
and low stratus will once again be possible, especially for
areas that receive rain during the day today.

Sunday is shaping up to be an active weather day. A potent upper
shortwave and associated surface cyclone track from the Great
Lakes along the international border, with the surface low
deepening to around 995 mb. The warm front lifts to our north,
putting our entire region in the warm sector. A pre-frontal
trough will track across the region during the afternoon, ahead
of the main cold front which tracks through Sunday night.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms, some strong to severe,
are expected Sunday afternoon and evening...

Despite mostly cloudy skies, CAMs suggest that we will see
SBCAPE values increase to 1500 to potentially 2000 J/kg. Shear
looks more impressive, with guidance suggesting around 30 to 35
kt winds from the southwest at 850 mb and over 40 kt winds from
the west/southwest at 500 mb. Hodographs therefore lengthen with
some low-level curvature. Now, there are questions as to just
how much we destabilize given the expected cloud cover, and the
forcing does not look overly impressive until the cold front
comes through Sunday night. Nevertheless, given the overlap of
shear and expected instability, we collaborated with SPC to
introduce a slight risk across the region Sunday, as any storms
that do develop in the warm sector could quickly become severe.
Main threat is damaging wind gusts, but isolated instances of
large hail or even a tornado can`t be ruled out given the more
impressive shear. All storms will be capable of producing
frequent lightning and heavy rain, but faster storms motions
should limit the flash flood threat. Sunday will be quite warm
and muggy, and if forecast confidence increases the heat
advisory may need to be expanded further north up the Hudson
Valley to around the Capital District.

There will likely be lingering showers and storms into Sunday
evening, but the severe threat diminishes with the loss of
daytime heating and waning instability. It remains warm and
muggy with some patchy fog ahead of the cold front, as the
front may take until 9-12z to fully clear our area and track
into central New England. However, cooler temperatures and lower
humidity are expected behind the front on Monday. We will likely
still have some showers around as the upper trough and
associated cold pool aloft move overhead, but we are not
expecting severe weather or additional hydro concerns. Showers
diminish Monday night as surface high pressure builds in from
the southwest. Monday night temps drop into the mid to upper
50s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast period opens with a brief period of fair and
dry weather with high pressure building in from the Ohio Valley,
then shifting eastward over the Mid Atlantic States. The flow aloft
will be west/northwest.  Temps will run above normal but humidity
levels should not be too bad with dewpoints in the 50s to around
60F. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations
and 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. The sfc anticyclone
moves offshore with a return flow of more humid air beginning. A
warm front will bring a slight chance of showers or an isolated
thunderstorm over the western Adirondacks. Lows will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Wed-Wed night will be the most unsettled day in the long term.  A
prefrontal sfc trough and a cold front will bring numerous showers
and a chance of thunderstorms.  Depending on the amount of
instability and sfc heating, some of the storms may be on the
stronger side.  PWATs surge above normal by a couple standard
deviations based on the latest NAEFS.  Locally heavy rain will be
possible.  Max temps will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s in the
valley areas with the best chance of lower 90s in the mid Hudson
Valley with 70s to lower/mid 80s over the hills and mtns. The
showers and thunderstorms should be diminishing by Thu morning. Lows
will be in the 50s and lower 60s north and west of the the Capital
Region and mid and upper 60s to the south and east.

Thursday through Friday...A few showers are possible with the upper
trough passage and in the wake of the cold front. A cooler and drier
air mass will be ridging in during the afternoon from the Great
Lakes Region.  Temps will be near seasonal levels with upper 70s to
lower 80s below 1000 ft in elevation and 60s to mid 70s above it on
Thu. Temps and humidity levels will be pleasant Thu night with 50s
and even some 40s over the Adirondack Park.   Zonal flow sets up
aloft to close the week with the anticyclone moving over New
England.  Fair conditions continue with seasonable temps. CPC is
predicting temperatures above normal for Days 8-14 (June 29th to
July 5th) with precipitation near to slightly above normal for
eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...A stationary front is over eastern NY and
western New England this morning. Multiple disturbances will
move along the boundary in the late morning through the
afternoon producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, as it
slowly lifts northward into tonight. The showers and
thunderstorms will diminish overnight.

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs and MVFR/VFR vsbys are impacting
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF this morning. Some LIFR conditions are
continuing at KPSF. KGFL has been mainly MVFR with cigs 1.5-3.0
kft AGL. Some showers nearby may briefly lower cigs to IFR. The
TAF sites will slowly improve to MVFR/VFR levels by the late
morning. KALB/KPSF will linger the longest at IFR levels.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the
frontal boundary with weak waves moving along it close to
noontime impacting KGFL/KALB first. We used TEMPO groups to
bring showers/thunderstorms in between 16Z-22Z from north to
south, except later at KPOU in the 22Z/SAT to 02Z/SUN timeframe.
Conditions will lower to MVFR and spotty IFR in the
showers/storms. There is a secondary wave of
showers/thunderstorms in the 00Z-06Z/SUN time frame that may
occur that we placed PROB30 groups in for all the sites and we
lowered the cigs/vsbys to MVFR/IFR levels. Low stratus with some
mist and fog continues thereafter and we placed IFR level
stratus with IFR/MVFR mist the murky air mass.

The winds will be light/variable at 4 KT or less this morning.
They will be southeast to south at less than 7 KT in the
afternoon and will become light to calm tonight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula