602
FXUS61 KALY 220559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
159 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue across the area this
weekend, with shower and storm chances each day. Strong to
severe storms will be possible on Sunday as a cold front moves
through the area, with quieter conditions expected early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
.Update...As of 1:35 AM EDT...Mostly just minor refreshments
with this update to match current obs. Still seeing a few
lingering showers over the southern ADKs, but dry elsewhere
across the region. Temperatures have already reached their
respective dew points for many areas, and as a result we are
seeing patchy fog/low stratus developing. Overall, tonight
remains warm and muggy with a few showers or an embedded rumble
of thunder possible north of I-90 late tonight with an
approaching upper disturbance. Previous forecast remains in good
shape with more details below...

.Previous...Isolated showers remain across portions of the
eastern Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks and southern Berkshires. SB
CAPES have dropped below 500 J/kg. Little forcing remains, so
just isolated showers expected for the next several hours,
mainly across the southern Adirondacks and northern portions of
the Capital Region.

Toward daybreak, there could be additional isolated/scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing across western areas as
another upper level impulse approaches from the west in
combination with some weak warm advection.

Patchy/areas of fog will develop where breaks in the mid level
clouds occur; with areas of low clouds (stratus) developing in
other areas.

Lows mainly 65-70, except for some lower 60s across portions of
the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
**Heat Advisory for the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield County,
 CT through 8PM Sunday.**

Very similar conditions expected across the area on Saturday as
aforementioned backdoor front remains hung up across our area.
As a result, another day of late morning shwrs and storms is
expected, with activity becoming more widespread during peak
heating in the afternoon. Overall severe threat again looks
marginal as best deep layered shear remains displaced to the
north and displaced from the main instability axis which again
will be positioned along the Mohawk Valley and points south.
SPC has our area in another marginal risk for Saturday, with
isolated strong wind gusts again being the biggest concern.
Another warm day is expected for the mid Hudson Valley and
Litchfield County, CT as these locations will remain south of
the backdoor front. Have expanded the heat advisory further east
to eastern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties in collaboration
with adjacent offices.

Diurnal shwr/storm activity will begin to come to an end early
Saturday evening with loss of daytime heating. Attention then
begins to turn to Sunday, as large-scale upper wave begins
digging into the western and central Great Lakes, before sliding
into our region and gradually taking on a more neutral to
slightly negative tilt with time. As this occurs, much if not
all our forecast area will quickly move back into the warm
sector with increasing southwesterly low-level flow. Model MSLP
field suggest there could be a pre-frontal trough that leads to
an initial round of convection late Sunday morning and early
afternoon, with another round possible later in the day as main
cold front approaches from the west.

As of right now, deep layered shear of 30-40 kts appears likely
as the main upper trough approaches from the west with time.
Shear magnitudes will likely be a bit better than what we`re
seeing both today and Saturday, however the biggest caveat
appears to be just how unstable the atmosphere becomes later in
the day behind the early round of convection. That said,
kinematics and large-scale forcing will definitely be present,
and Sunday into early Sunday night definitely warrants continued
focus.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main upper trough will slide through the region on Monday in a
post-frontal airmass with instability shwrs/iso storms possible
across the area. This will finally result in cooler temps for
the start of next week with highs on Monday expected to warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s down south. Weak upper ridging
will lead to dry conditions across the area on Tuesday before
next upper trough approaches from the west on Wednesday. Shwrs
and storms look to move back into the area Wednesday afternoon
with activity possibly lasting through Thursday morning. This
looks to be followed by the arrival of high pressure Thursday
night with drier weather expected through the early weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...A frontal boundary will become stationary
over eastern NY and western New England this morning. Multiple
disturbances will move along the boundary in the late morning
through the afternoon producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms, as it slowly lifts northward into tonight.

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs and some VFR/MVFR vsbys are impacting
KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF this morning. Some light showers are near
KGFL with MVFR cigs. We are expecting IFR/LIFR conditions to
develop between 06Z-09Z/SAT and continue to 12Z-13Z/SAT. KALB
has IFR cigs at 900 ft AGL...and is hovering near MVFR bottom
range. KPSF is also there. We expected IFR cigs and some
MVFR/IFR vsbys to form due to recently wet ground and abundant
low-level moisture. KPOU has cleared with some mid and high
clouds. They will likely see IFR/LIFR mist/fog form with
IFR/MVFR cigs. We have tried to trend due with TEMPO groups.

The conditions will briefly improve to MVFR/VFR in the late
morning into the early pm, but showers and thunderstorms will
form ahead of the frontal boundary with weak waves moving along
it. We used PROB30 groups to bring showers/thunderstorms in
between 16Z-22Z/23Z from north to south. Conditions will lower
to MVFR and spotty IFR in the showers/storms. There is a
secondary wave of showers/thunderstorms in the 00Z-06Z/SUN time
frame that may occur that we placed PROB30 groups in for KALB
and prevailing showers for KGFL. We were less confident for
KPSF/KPOU and left just VCSH MVFR cigs.

The winds will be light/variable to calm this morning. They
will be southeast to south at less than 7 KT late this morning
into the afternoon and will become light to calm tonight.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and near
any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Numerous SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gitro
NEAR TERM...Gitro/KL/Main/NAS
SHORT TERM...Gitro
LONG TERM...Gitro
AVIATION...Wasula