984
FXUS61 KALY 290144
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
944 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will depart off the coast of New England tonight,
allowing for increasing clouds, with temperatures not as cool
as last night. It will be mostly cloudy, breezy and more humid
on Saturday with an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the day. Showers and thunderstorms, some
with heavy downpours, is expected on Saturday night for much of
the area. A lingering shower or thunderstorm is expected on
Sunday with warmer temperatures, before drier weather returns
for the start of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Main change with this update was to expand likely PoPs
eastward to include the Capital District around or shortly after
sunrise, due to a surge of moisture along with warm advection.
The past few runs of the HRRR have consistently shown a batch
of showers moving E-NE from central overnight. Most of the
showers should be light into early Sat morning, although a few
embedded brief heavier showers may occur in some spots.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0751]...Tranquil/dry conditions in place
across the region early this evening. Dewpoints remain low in
the 40s to mid 50s range, resulting in lower than usual humidity
for late June. Satellite imagery shows high/mid level clouds
increasing from the west. Made some minor adjustments based on
latest obs, with no significant changes with this update.

As high pressure starts to depart off to the east this evening,
some mid and high level clouds (currently seen over western New
York) will spread towards the area for this evening into
tonight. In addition, a southerly flow will start to increase
across the region for the overnight hours. With the increasing
clouds and the breeze, temps won`t be as cool as last night,
with lows in the 50s.

A warm front over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic will start
moving northeast for late tonight. With increasing moisture
within the southwest flow aloft, an area of light rain will be
developing across western and central New York overnight. This
may spread towards the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley for late in
the overnight and towards daybreak on Saturday. Amounts through
sunrise on Saturday look fairly light and limited to
northwestern parts of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the warm front will continue lifting northeast
towards the area. Our region will be in broad south to southwest
flow aloft ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance over
the Great Lakes. The low level jet will be around 50 kts,
allowing for plenty of moisture advection and warm air
advection from the southwest. Our area will remain on the
northern side of the surface boundary through much of the day on
Saturday, so surface-based instability looks fairly limited.
Based on the 12z SPC HREF, our area may finally start to see
some minor amounts on instability by Sat night (mainly under
1000 J/kg) and it`s unclear still if this will be surface-based
or not, as the timing within the diurnal cycle may allow for
this to elevated. 0-6 km bulk shear will be increasing thanks to
the strong flow aloft, with values in the 40 kt range. Plenty
of moisture will be increasing across the region with PWATs
rapidly rising to around 2.00 inches by Sat evening. However,
the moist profile will keep lapse rates rather poor across the
region.

Some light rain or showers will be ongoing for far northern
areas early on Sat morning. However, as these continue to track
eastward towards New England, they will be weakening and
dissipating as they run into a drier air mass. However, the
approaching warm front will allow for another batch of showers
to spread towards the area from the west for Wed afternoon or
early evening. Most of this activity is expected to impact
western and northern areas. There may some embedded heavier
bursts, but the bulk of this looks fairly light. Otherwise,
skies will be mostly cloudy through Saturday with temps only in
the 70s.

As our area gets into the warm sector and we finally get some
instability in place, there will be the potential for some
heavier downpours on Sat night, as the pre-frontal trough allows
for additional areas of convection to develop. CAMs had
different ideas on the exact placement and coverage of this
precip, so this is somewhat uncertain. However, there could be
some heavier downpours on Sat night for parts of the region, and
ponding in urban/poor drainage areas will be possible,
especially if repeated rounds occur. Can`t rule out a rogue
strong wind gust due to the decent shear and high moisture in
place, but limited instability will keep this threat fairly
isolated. Temps will remain mild and muggy in the mid 60s to low
70s with much stickier dewpoints than recent nights.

On Sunday, the surface cold front will be passing through the
region from west to east. It may cross western areas earlier in
the day, but will cross southeastern areas in the afternoon.
Enough heating should occur ahead of the front to allow temps to
reach into the 80s, especially southeastern areas. While the
morning should be fairly quiet, some convection may develop
ahead of the boundary for the afternoon hours. Exact coverage is
still in question, but enough instability and shear could be in
place for some stronger storms before activity heads towards the
coast for late in the day. SPC has a marginal to slight risk
across the region, although the greatest threat may be just
southeast of the area, although it will depend on the exact
timing of the front. Behind the boundary, cooler and less humid
air will return to the region for Sunday night with clearing
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period.

High pressure will be passing over the area for Monday into
Tuesday. This will allow for dry conditions with fairly clear
skies. Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s. After highs
in the 70s on Monday, they will rise into the 80s on Tuesday.
Mon night will likely be another clear and cool night with lows
in the 40s and 50s once again.

By the middle of the week, temps and humidity levels will be
rising as our area gets back into the return flow on the
backside of the departing high pressure area. Highs will be well
into the 80s for Wed through Fri, with dewpoints into the 60s.
At this point, heat index values look just below advisory
criteria, but will need to watch closely in case temps/dewpoints
look higher. It should continue to be dry most of the time,
although some spotty showers (or perhaps an isolated t-storm)
will be possible during the late week, mainly in the diurnally
favored afternoon or evening hours. At this point, forcing and
dynamics look weak, so the potential for strong storms looks low
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the night with increasing high then mid level clouds
ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front will bring
showers Saturday morning from the KGFL-KALB corridor starting
around 09z-11z. These showers will likely stay north of KPOU,
but could get near KPSF so will mention VCSH there. Cigs will
gradually lower to MVFR levels Saturday morning due to
increasing moisture, but could remain VFR at KPOU for several
more hours.

Periods of showers will likely continue Saturday afternoon from
KGFL-KALB as the warm front pushes north/east. There will be a
better chance of showers developing at KPSF by Saturday evening,
while the majority should still remain north of KPOU. Conditions
are likely to be MVFR at all sites prior to 00z Sunday.

Winds will be variable around 5 kt or less through the evening,
becoming south-southeast around 5-10 after 06z Saturday. Winds
on Saturday will be southerly and steadily increase to around
10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/JPV
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...JPV