422
FXUS61 KALY 270347
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1147 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather has exited the region with just some areas of
showers lingering overnight. Then, cooler, breezy and drier
conditions ensue tomorrow with some spotty showers north of
Albany. After a sunny and seasonably cool Friday, chances for
rain and thunderstorms return for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

The QLCS that raced through the mid-Hudson Valley into
Litchfield County this evening and produced damaging winds has
exited well to our east and is now in eastern MA. Just a few
areas of stratiform rain linger in the Upper Hudson Valley and
southern VT but if this rain is shriveling up. Otherwise, a
mainly cloudy and mild night expected tonight with a second area
of stratiform rain likely grazing the mid-Hudson Valley and NW
CT after Midnight as rain and storms from eastern PA pushes
into NJ and the NYC area. Luckily, most of our area has been
worked over so no additional severe weather is expected. Lows
fall into the upper 50s to low 60s with cooler lows in the
southern Adirondacks in the mid-50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A few light showers may north of I-90 Thu morning along the
southern fringe of another short wave tracking east across
southern Quebec. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies should give way
to increasing sunshine during the afternoon as subsidence
strengthens associated with high pressure building east from the
Great Lakes. Decent mixing should develop Thu afternoon,
resulting NW winds gusting 20-25 mph down the Mohawk Valley into
the Capital District, N. Taconics and Berkshires. It will
gradually become less humid, as dewpoints drop into the 50s
during the afternoon with even some 40s in the Adirondacks.
Highs will range from upper 60s in the W. Adirondacks to lower
80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

Clear and cool conditions expected Thu night, with surface high
pressure in place across the area. With an anomalously dry air
mass (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) in place along with
clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will be below
normal with lower/mid 40s in the mountains and upper 40s/lower
50s in the valleys.

High pressure remains over the region through much of Fri,
before starting to shift east into New England late in the day.
This will result in abundant sunshine, near normal temperatures
and light winds along with comfortable humidity levels
(dewpoints in the 40s!). High pressure moves from New England
Fri evening off the coast overnight, resulting in a southerly
flow developing around the departing high. Along with increasing
clouds, will result in milder (near normal) low temperatures
compared to Thu night, with 50s to around 60. Most of the area
will remain dry, although a few showers may develop prior to
sunrise for areas west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Potentially active weather this coming weekend, as a series of
fronts move through. A warm front is expected to lift northward
across the area on Sat, with a pre-frontal trough resulting in a
high > 80% probability of showers and storms in the afternoon
and evening. Sufficient moisture should be in place with PWAT
anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Magnitude of instability is in
question due to possible cloud cover and potential lack of
heating in the relative warm sector. So there is a low
confidence for strong to severe storms developing. Torrential
downpours may occur in the moisture- rich environment. A better
chance of strong to severe storms may be on Sun ahead of the
true cold front as temperatures warm above normal and greater
instability likely develops. Based on timing of the cold front
as of today, it appears the best chance would be for areas
south/east of Albany. Will continue to monitor trends.

The cold front should clear the area by Sun evening, with
cooler/drier air filtering Sun night. An upper level short wave
trough is forecast to move through on Mon, but with limited
moisture will only mention a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures look to be slightly below normal. Ridging both at
the surface and aloft then takes hold on Tue, with dry
conditions and temperatures warming back to normal. As the high
shifts east of the area on Wed, a warm/moist southerly flow
develops with a chance for showers and storms as a potential
front approaches from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will bring
periods of rain to the region this evening into the early
overnight hours. A stronger thunderstorm remains possible at
KPOU so have maintained a TEMPO for TSRA there. Elsewhere,
thunder is not expected so reduced to just RA. Cigs/vsbys will
begin VFR, then some reductions to IFR/MVFR are possible in
periods of steadier rainfall or any thunderstorm.

Rain will taper off later in the overnight with some mixed MVFR/VFR
cigs into daybreak Thursday. During the day Thursday, cigs will lift
back to VFR. Some isolated showers are anticipated during the day
but kept VCSH out of the TAFs at this time due to limited coverage
and expected light intensity.

Wind will become variable at 5 kt or less tonight, then become west
to northwesterly on Thursday at 10-15 kt with a few gusts around 20
kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun