Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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635 FXUS61 KALY 210205 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1005 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and muggy weather will continue through the evening hours, with showers and thunderstorms possible. Some storms will be severe and capable of producing damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours. While it will remain warm and humid on Friday, it won`t be quite as hot as the past few days, with some additional showers and thunderstorms possible, especially for southern areas. Continued warm and sticky weather will continue into the weekend, with some additional showers and thunderstorms possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... ...Heat Advisory in effect for parts of the mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County through 8 PM Friday... A few showers in the mid Hudson Valley into the southern Berkshires that will continue to build east and south through this evening, before all the showers end. A mix of clouds through the night, with some patchy fog, especially where the heaviest rain fell. Just minor adjustments to temperatures, sky cover and rain chances through the night. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The strong upper level ridge (around 597 dm) is centered just south of the region over the mid Atlantic States. This ridge has been slowly drifting southward and our area is on the northern fringe of the strongest ridging, allowing for weak disturbances to rotate around the northern edge. Some lingering clouds are expected, although it will remain very muggy. Any areas that saw rain will be susceptible to the development of patchy fog. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and mild with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... On Friday, the strong ridging will continue to shift further south and west, becoming centered over the Tennessee Valley. Our area will continue to be on the northern fringe of this ridging and closer to the zonal flow to the north. A weak boundary to the north and west will be dropping southward across the region on Friday. During daytime heating, some additional showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon and evening hours, especially for southern parts of the area. Overall, lapse rates don`t look as impressive as Thursday and shear is still fairly weak. A few strong storms will gusty winds can`t be ruled out for southern areas, but the threat for severe weather looks more isolated. Once again, high PWATs could lead to heavy downpours again on Friday, so can`t rule out some ponding of water or an isolated flash flood. Temps look a little cooler for most areas compared to Thursday, with 80s to near 90 for most spots. However, the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT may still reach the lower 90s, so will allow for the Heat Advisory to continue for those areas through the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms should diminish on Friday evening with the loss of daytime heating. As a result, mainly dry weather is expected on Friday night with a partly cloudy sky and some patchy fog. It will still be mild and muggy with lows still in the upper 60s to low 70s. The boundary will be draped across the area on Saturday. This should allow for more cloud cover, although the front may be gradually drifting back northward as a warm front at some point during the day Saturday into Saturday night. Some more showers and thunderstorms are possible, but activity looks scattered and the best coverage will be during the afternoon and evening hours. The severe threat looks fairly low on Saturday, but again, can`t rule out any downpours leading to ponding of water. Highs will generally be in the 80s and heat index values should stay under Heat Advisory criteria. Will keep a chance for showers or t-storms into Sat night with lows in the upper 60s, along with continued muggy conditions. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continued warm and humid conditions are expected to be in place at the start of the long term period on Sunday. Valley areas will be reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and some heat index values could be approaching advisory criteria in a few southern areas again. As a frontal boundary approaches from the west, another round of showers and t-storms look to occur during the afternoon and evening hours. With the expected warm and humid conditions, there should be enough instability in place, so will need to watch the threat for some stronger storms once again as well. There are some timing differences in the guidance regarding when the front moves through the area, as it could be crossing on Sunday night or even early Monday, but there should be enough forcing for an organized line or cluster of storms on Sunday. Will keep POPs in the chance range for Sunday night into Monday, as the front and associated trough moves across the region. Once the front clears the area, less humid air will be moving towards the area, although this will be a fairly subtle change and temps will still be above normal. By late Monday, skies will be clearing out as well and the threat for precip will be lowering as well. Will still keep temps well into the 80s for Monday. Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday with high pressure nearby. While it should be rain-free, temps will still be rather warm (valley areas in the mid to upper 80s) and it will be fairly humid (dewpoints into the 60s) as well. The next system will impact the region around Wednesday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. In addition, temps will be fairly warm once again with humid conditions. More significant cooling and drying is expected towards Thursday behind this system. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some convection will still be moving through KPSF over the next hour or two. There could be brief period of IFR conditions there due to low visibility within rainfall, along with some brief gusty winds. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorm are moving away from the region, with just some lingering sct mid and high level clouds. Winds are becoming light and variable for all terminals. Overnight, the humid conditions and recent rainfall will lead to the development of some fog at KPSF and KGFL. The fog may reach IFR conditions, with visibility under 1SM at times. Fog is less likely at KALB and KPOU since they avoided the rainfall today, so will keep VFR conditions for those sites through the overnight. Any fog will end by shortly after daybreak (10z-11z). On Friday, flying conditions will be VFR in the morning with just sct high clouds and light winds. The clouds will increase by afternoon, along with some scattered showers or t-storms in the area. For now, will just mention a VCSH due to uncertainty regarding extent and coverage, but brief reduction to the flying conditions are possible due to some convection in the area. Surface winds will continue to be fairly light and variable outside of any thunderstorm activity. Outlook... Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NYZ064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis