075
FXUS61 KALY 270524
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
124 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies partially clear tonight along and north of I-90 resulting
in some fog, especially in river valleys. Canadian high
pressure builds southward tomorrow into the weekend giving us
drier weather although a few rain showers may sneak back into
areas south I-90 as our front retrogrades northward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Rain is decreasing in coverage and is just some patchy light
rain and drizzle south of the Capital Region and the Berkshires
and points south. Northern edge of the higher clouds slowly
building north while areas from the southern Adirondacks and
Lake George region are seeing low clouds due to the saturated
low levels. Some fog is possible in some areas, even in cloudy
areas due to the low level moisture after a good soaking rain.
Temperatures should not cool so much tonight from the Mohawk
Valley and southern VT and points south due to the cloud cover.
Some adjustments to rain chances and temperatures through the
night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Showers dwindle this evening and end by around Midnight per
latest CAM guidance. As the cold front shifts south and
eastward, skies clear in its wake. With dew points staying
elevated and soils moist after a soaking rainfall, fog will
easily develop, especially in river valleys this evening. Fog
may turn dense in spots. While the sfc boundary tracks through
the mid-Hudson Valley by the pre-dawn hours, the mid-level
moisture/thermal gradient stalls over the mid-Hudson Valley
which will keep skies cloudy. Clouds should mitigate fog
formation.

Temperatures stay mild tonight where skies are cloudy with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60s. Further north
where skies clear in the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley and
Upper Hudson Valley, overnight lows drop into the upper 40s to
low 50s.

The sfc cold front continues pressing further into Central NJ
during the day Friday but the mid-level boundary hangs around
the mid-Hudson or Lower Hudson Valley. As Canadian high
pressure and subsidence/dry air build in the wake of our
departing closed low, early fog in river valleys will give way
to mainly sunny near and north of I-90. Skies remain partly to
mostly cloudy to the south closer. With a mild air mass still
in place aloft and a light northerly flow reducing the humidity,
temperatures will warm nicely into the low to mid 70s Friday
afternoon giving us a pleasant end to the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Our stalled sfc boundary retreats back northward Friday night
into Saturday as a closed low in the MS/TN Valley absorbs the
remnants of Helene resulting in downstream ridging building in
the mid-Atlantic. There remains uncertainty on just how far
north the boundary advances as our Canadian high slowly lifts
into northern New England; however, we do expect increasing
cloud coverage from south to north during this period. We slowly
expand slight chance POPs into the eastern Catskills, mid-
Hudson Valley and into Berkshire/Litchfield County late Friday
night into Saturday but ensemble guidance suggests incoming
showers will be light and isolated to widely scattered as
moisture and the boundary enters into an area of stronger
confluence established across the Northeast.

Despite increasing clouds on Saturday, temperatures will still
warm into the low to mid 70s as the mild air mass remains in
place aloft. Humidity also gradually increases in response to
the retreating boundary.

We remain mostly cloudy Saturday night but the potential for
showers decreases through the night as our boundary shifts
southward in response to high pressure in the Midwest/Great
Lakes builds into the Northeast. Temperatures remain mild only
dropping into the mid to upper 50s thanks to cloud coverage.

Mostly cloudy skies start the day on Sunday but should give way
to increasing sun in the afternoon from north to south as high
pressure and subsidence from the Great Lakes continues to build
eastward. Temperatures remain rather mild/comfortable with highs
again rising into the low to mid 70s with upper 60s in the hill
towns/higher terrain.

Gradually clearing skies continues into Sunday night with
temperatures cooling in response to the drier air mass filtering
southward. Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 50s with the
hill towns and higher terrain in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pleasant day to start the work week as high pressure builds at
the sfc and upper level ridging amplifies over the Northeast.
We should enjoy mostly sunny skies with temperatures warming
into the low to mid 70s. High pressure slides to the east
Monday night into Tuesday becoming anchored over northern New
England. This will keep an onshore flow in place and
temperatures should cool in response to the incoming marine air
mass. Tuesday highs only in the mid to upper 60s with around 70
in the valley.

Our next cold front arrives during the middle of the week which
will result in our next chance for rain. Still uncertainty on
the exact timing and moisture content but had enough confidence
to increases POPs to chance Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Canadian high pressure builds in its wake for the end of the
week leading to another period of dry and seasonable weather.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with overnight lows
cooling into the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be a high likelihood of IFR fog and ceilings from
KALB/KGFL/KPSF northward through early this morning with periods
of LIFR ceilings most likely at KGFL. Areas further south will
mainly experience MVFR ceilings through the early morning. By
about 13Z, all TAF sites should be VFR and VFR will continue
through the afternoon. Winds will be light/variable through the
entire forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...NAS/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Humphrey