Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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663 FXUS61 KALY 222339 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 739 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring increasing clouds late tonight, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with a few showers, mainly south and west of Albany. High pressure will bring dry weather and some clearing for Tuesday. An approaching low pressure and frontal system will bring increasing chances for showers for Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... .Update...As of 7:40 PM EDT...Coastal Low well SE of Cape Cod and high pressure to our northeast are resulting in E/SE flow and relatively cool temperatures across our region this evening. With a ridge of high pressure extending southwestwards into western New England, most of the region remains dry, although there are a few showers across far northern Herkimer County in the vicinity of a frontal boundary that has been stalled across the region through today. Added in PoPs here through the next couple hours, but showers should diminish quickly after sunset, similar to last night. Also adjusted sky grids to reflect mid- level clouds along the eastern slopes of the Berkshires/Southern Greens and in the Mid Hudson Valley near the frontal boundary. Outside of these areas, skies are relatively clear, which should allow temperatures to drop off quickly now that the sun has set. However, clouds increase late tonight ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. Overall, just minor adjustments with this update, as previous forecast remains in good shape. .Previous...Diurnal Cu/strato-cu should dissipate this evening, with a period of clear to partly cloudy skies expected before clouds thicken from the west toward daybreak. This should allow temps to drop off into the mid/upper 40s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley and western New England where enough clear skies occur, with lower 50s elsewhere. Patchy fog may develop later this evening, however overall areal extent is not expected to be too widespread at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave currently across Great Lakes region will track mainly north of the region Monday. Lingering confluent upper level flow across the region should weaken shortwave and overall dynamics associated with this feature upon reaching the region Monday afternoon. However, enough mid level moisture may allow for some spotty light showers/sprinkles to reach portions of the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and Schoharie County by mid to late Monday morning through mid afternoon. Should confluent upper level flow become weaker and/or shift slightly farther east than currently expected, some showers/sprinkles could even extend into the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley midday through early/mid afternoon. Otherwise, mainly cloudy with slightly cooler temperatures for Monday, with highs 65-70 for valley areas and 60-65 across higher terrain areas. Weak shortwave ridging and strengthening surface high to our northeast should provide some clearing for Monday night, and at least partly sunny skies Tuesday. Cool Monday night with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, and highs Tuesday mainly in the 60s. Clouds increase once again Tuesday night in advance of next system approaching from the west. Some showers may develop after midnight, especially for areas west of the Hudson River. Lows in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Next upper level impulse and low pressure system track into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into early Thursday. This will be our best chance for measurable rain across the region, although amounts remain uncertain as there is a possibility that nearby lingering upper level confluent flow allows incoming moisture to decrease somewhat. Nevertheless, we expect at least some showers during this time period, with some possibility for a period of steadier rain in some areas. Some weak elevated instability could even allow for a few rumbles of thunder, particularly across the Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some lingering showers possible Thursday, mainly in the morning, then fair weather may return by late next week into next weekend, depending on track/evolution of upper level energy tracking north and east of the region. Guidance has become more progressive with this energy, which would favor drier weather. Should this system become less progressive and/or its track shift farther south/west, more clouds and some showers may occur instead. Cool temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 60s. Slightly warmer for Thursday through Sunday, assuming some drying occurs, with highs 70-75 in valleys and 65-70 across higher elevations. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...All TAF sites currently seeing VFR conditions, which should continue through the duration of the TAF period. Can`t rule out some brief patchy fog at GFL late tonight/around daybreak if there are enough breaks in the clouds, and some MVFR stratus may develop for a few hours around sunrise at PSF as well. Otherwise, will see increasing mid and high clouds after midnight and through tomorrow, but conditions should remain VFR. A few showers can`t be ruled out tomorrow afternoon. Added a VCSH group at POU late tomorrow afternoon where confidence is highest, but may need to add mention of showers at ALB/GFL with subsequent TAF issuances if confidence increases. Winds this evening will be from the E/SE at around 5 kt, except 5-10 kt at ALB. Winds generally diminish to 5 kt or less between 04-06z, but increase to 5-8 kt from the SE tomorrow morning, continuing through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...KL/Main SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Main