535
FXUS61 KALY 301058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
658 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south and
east of Albany. Monday will be cooler and less humid with
isolated showers possible. Fair and warmer conditions return for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE..As of 645 AM EDT, cluster of showers and thunderstorms
across northern/central Catskills slowly advancing
east/southeast. Leading edge of showers already into SW Herkimer
County. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis suggests MU CAPES of 1000-1500
J/kg across south central NY into the Catskills, decreasing to
500-1000 J/kg farther east into the Capital Region and areas
east of the Hudson River.

Expect thunderstorms across Otsego County to gradually weaken as
they track into Schoharie County and eastern Catskills over the
next 1-2 hours. However, they may still produce some gusty winds
and heavy downpours across southern Schoharie County and western
Greene County. Otherwise, this general area of showers/storms
should decrease in areal coverage as it outruns the better
instability reservoir to the south/southwest.

Remnant outflow from these showers/storms may provide a focus
for additional convective initiation later this morning, as
discussed below.

PREVIOUS [404 AM EDT]...As of 4 AM EDT, cluster of
showers/thunderstorms across SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk
Valley with some embedded stronger cells with gusty winds. This
cluster should continue tracking east/southeast over the next
1-2 hours. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis suggests MU CAPES (mainly
elevated) of ~1000-1500 J/kg for areas west of the Hudson River.
Showers/storms should move across the remainder of the Mohawk
Valley, Lake George/Saratoga region over the next 1-2 hours, and
northern portions of the Capital Region.

Eventually, these showers/storms should weaken around/shortly
after sunrise. However, lingering outflow may become initiation
for additional convection later this morning across the Capital
Region. Schoharie County and southern VT, which should then
track east/southeast and strengthen upon reaching areas south of
I-90, where MU CAPES may reach 2000+ J/kg within an area of 0-6
km shear of 40-45 KT. SPC has placed areas south/east of
Albany, from southern VT/Berkshires southwest into the
central/southern Taconics, SE Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT within a Slight Risk for severe T-storms due to these
overlapping severe parameters. Scattered damaging wind gusts
will be the main severe threat from these storms, although there
remains a very low risk area for tornadoes across western New
England extending into eastern portions of the mid Hudson
Valley, where low LCL`s and greater low level shear will exist.

Main cold front will then track southeast this afternoon, and
could trigger additional isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms, however there remains uncertainty how
much recovery there might be from any earlier storms.

Any thunderstorms could contain torrential downpours today given
PWAT`s 1.50-1.75" and some possibility for
training/backbuilding of cells.

High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in many valley
areas today, and possibly the upper 80s across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, where heat indices could briefly reach the
mid 90s before cooling from thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers/thunderstorms should taper off this
evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Additional
isolated/scattered showers may develop later tonight as upper
level trough approaches. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy and
turning less humid with low temps mainly in the 50s.

Upper level trough will traverse the region Monday, and may
produce isolated showers, especially for areas east of the
Hudson River. There could be enough instability for some thunder
within the tallest convective elements. Otherwise, it will
become breezy and less humid, with max temps mainly in the 70s
in valley areas and 65-70 across higher terrain areas.

Mainly clear and quite cool Monday night, with low temps in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for most areas. Some portions of the
southern Adirondacks could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly sunny and warmer for Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies
and milder temps Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday rebounding into
the lower/mid 80s for lower elevations and mid/upper 70s across
higher terrain. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered off the New England coast as
southerly return flow resumes across the region. A warm front will
lift northward across the area. The best forcing will remain to our
north and west so another dry day is expected. Highs will rise into
the lower to mid-80s across the valleys and mid to upper 70s across
the higher elevations with continued comfortable humidity levels.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well
northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front during this time. Instability looks
rather weak so the severe weather threat looks low at this time.
Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some
heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming
days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day for July
Fourth with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley
areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to
lower 80s in the higher elevations).

The front looks to lift back northward as a warm front Friday into
next weekend as another upper trough approaches from the west. This
will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms around each day for
the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z/Mon...Cigs will trend to VFR this morning along with
mainly dry weather. Showers west of KALB are expected to
dissipate before arriving later this morning. Even if they do
arrive, no restrictions to cigs or vsbys are expected. A round
of showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and
track eastward, mainly affecting KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Best
thunderstorm chances are at KPOU/KPSF where TEMPOS for
thunderstorms were included between 17- 20z/Sun. Only a shower
TEMPO was included at KALB. IFR/MVFR conditions are possible in
any shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Strong winds are
possible in any thunderstorm at KPOU. It is also possible a
second line of showers and thunderstorms passes through KPOU
after 20z/Sun, but will only include a VCSH for then and allow
later TAF issuances make adjustments if needed.

Showers will end and clouds will briefly decrease in coverage
before patchy low clouds develop overnight along with an
isolated shower mainly near KGFL. KPSF is most favored for MVFR
cigs. Will leave all other TAF sites SCT for now due to lower
confidence.

Wind will become south to southwesterly at 10-15 kt with a few
higher gusts to around 25 kt, then shift west to northwesterly
this afternoon and evening at similar speeds. Wind will become
northerly at around 10 kt overnight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Abundant moisture (PWAT`s 1.5-2 inches, especially areas
south/east of Albany) and relatively warm cloud depths will
promote efficient rainfall rates in showers and thunderstorms
today. Rainfall rates could reach or exceed one inch/hour within
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Albany this
afternoon.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
will be possible where thunderstorms occur. Isolated flash
flooding is also possible where multiple heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL