Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
072 FXUS61 KALY 232346 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 746 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers are expected mainly west of the Hudson River through tonight. Drier weather and cool temperatures will return for Tuesday, with rain chances increasing areawide Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... .Update...As of 7:45 PM EDT...Mainly just minor adjustments with this ESTF. Skies remain mostly cloudy, although guidance suggests breaks in the clouds continue to develop overnight as drier low-level air works in from the east/northeast with a ridge of high pressure building in at the surface overnight. Currently, a few light showers remain in the Catskills and Mohawk Valley, but these should taper off as well over the next few hours. Temperatures are fairly uniform across the region with 50s to low 60s, and should begin to drop off as breaks in the cloud cover develop with lows dropping into the 40s to low 50s. Previous forecast remains in good shape with more details below... .Update...Expect isolated to scattered rain showers to remain a threat mainly for areas along and west of the Hudson Valley through early evening. As the shortwave aloft and jet forcing depart the area, any leftover rain showers should exit the area or dissipate by midnight. Rainfall will remain around or below a tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, expect dry conditions with continued cloudy skies. Overnight, mid-level ridging will build across the area from the west, which will result in strengthening surface ridging across western New England. Expect dry conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures falling into the upper 40s (terrain) to low 50s (valleys). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The ridging aloft and surface high pressure will linger across the area for the daytime Tuesday, with skies featuring a mix of clouds & sun. PM highs will range from the upper 50s to low 60s (terrain), to low 70s (valleys). Tuesday night, a positively tilted shortwave is on track to approach the area from the west. As it does so, the southernmost section will break off and strengthen into a closed low across the Midwest, with the northern stream trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ontario. WAA and moisture will strengthen across the region with increasing southwesterly flow, forcing with the shortwave and surface cold front, which will increase chances of welcomed rain showers across the region. Activity will be isolated to scattered to start, with coverage increasing during the daytime Wednesday and lasting through the night. Rumbles of thunder will also be possible as we will have some weak levels of elevated instability per fcst soundings, though the risk of severe weather is low. Temperatures will be cool thanks to the clouds and precipitation, with highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. There will not be much of a diurnal drop Wednesday night with lows only in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettled start to the long term forecast period will give way to what looks to be another prolonged stretch of dry weather across eastern New York and western New England. Read on for details... Upper-level, shortwave troughing resides across the region Thursday morning as an associated surface cyclone tracks south and east across southern Quebec. A weak cold front will swing through the region from west to east Thursday in attendance with the progression of the surface low while the upper-level wave deepens and closes off at the 500 mb level. These features, though their position will maintain better forcing to the north of the region, will allow for isolated to scattered showers to linger Thursday morning into the afternoon especially in higher terrain areas where upslope flow could aid in overcoming the lack of stronger forced ascent. However, with the upper low following a fairly swift track, dry conditions should be reinforced across the region by Thursday evening. Additionally, with moisture on the modest side, QPF is anticipated to be light and much needed after the recent dry spells. Upon the exit of the aforementioned system, geopotential heights increase as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and surface high pressure sinks south from southeast Canada. Fair weather will persist across eastern New York and western New England through Sunday as the upper ridge continues to build farther across the Northeast. High temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will be fairly steady with upper 60s to mid 70s with pockets of mid 60s across higher terrain regions and upper 70s in valley areas. Low temperatures, too, will be fairly similar across the period with mid/upper 40s to low/mid 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00z Wednesday...All terminals currently seeing VFR conditions, which should prevail through most of the TAF period. BKN mid and high clouds become less numerous as the night goes on, especially at ALB/GFL. There could be a brief period with some MVFR stratus at PSF and possibly POU late tonight/around sunrise tomorrow, which was handled with tempo groups. Otherwise, with plenty of clouds around and a light breeze we are not expecting much fog/mist tonight. Tomorrow, any low stratus quickly mixes out after sunrise. SCT mid-level clouds remain with cloud bases between 4000-6000 ft, and high clouds increase ahead of the next upper disturbance, but VFR conditions should prevail through at least 00z Wednesday. Winds will be from the east/southeast at 5-10 kt this evening, diminishing to 5 kt or less by 04-06z. Winds tomorrow morning increase to 5-10 kt from the east/southeast again, with some gusts to around 15 kt possible tomorrow afternoon at ALB/PSF. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speck NEAR TERM...Main/Speck SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...Main