697
FXUS61 KALY 232325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and
thunderstorms tapering off. An upper level disturbance will
bring cooler and less humid weather on Monday with a few
additional showers. Dry weather returns on Tuesday before
another system brings chances for more showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch #448 remains in effect from the Capital District
and points north and east until 8 PM EDT

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #449 remains in effect for southern
areas until 10 PM EDT

.UPDATE...As of 715 PM EDT, Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms pushed across the region this afternoon with some
turning severe resulting in some reports of downed trees and
wires. Thank you to all who submitted reports. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue to progress from west to east ahead
of an approaching cold front which is now moving through western
New York. Instability remains in place but is lower compared to
earlier today with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE per latest SPC
mesoanalysis along with around 40 kt of 0-6km shear. Some of the
stronger thunderstorms could still become strong to severe over
the next few hours, but the overall threat will begin to
decrease with the loss of daytime heating. We have canceled the
Tornado Watch for the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley but it
remains in effect elsewhere until 8 pm. The Severe Thunderstorm
Watch remains in effect for southern areas until 10 pm. Activity
will gradually taper off overnight as the front crosses the
region and brings in a cooler and less humid air mass in its
wake. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s by
daybreak Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough/low will push across the region on Monday.
The associated cold pool will support some rain showers
especially for western areas. Otherwise, it will be a cooler,
breezy and less humid day with highs only reaching the 60s and
70s.

High pressure will then build into the region Monday night and
on Tuesday with a period of dry weather. 850 hPa temperatures
rebound to +15 to +17C which will allow temperatures to rise
back into the 80s to around 90 except the mid to upper 70s
across the higher elevations.

A warm front associated with our next system will lift northward
across our region Tuesday night. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder will be possible along the front especially for northern
and western areas. A milder night is expected with lows only in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We will be warm sectored again on Wednesday ahead of another low
pressure system and approaching cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop along a prefrontal trough
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of this
convection, it will be warm and humid once again with highs
reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations
and mid-70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations. We may
approach heat advisory criteria for parts of the area especially
along the mid-Hudson Valley.

This system departs the area Wednesday night with high pressure
returning with cooler, less humid and dry weather to end the
week. Yet another low pressure system may cross the region next
weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the KPOU and KPSF areas
through about 01Z-02Z.  More scattered showers and thunderstorms
along the wind shift boundary in central NY tracking east but
scattered enough so that including VCSH at KGFL between 02Z-06Z,
KALB between 04Z-06Z, KPSF and KPOU between 05Z-07Z. Will amend if
one of the scattered showers or storms tracks toward the TAF sites,
and will adjust the timing in amendments, too if necessary.

After the wind shift boundary tracks through, mainly VFR ceilings
just above 3000 feet, except right at or just below 3000 feet at
KGFL roughly 11Z-16Z and KPSF most of Monday. VFR at KALB and KPOU.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Monday
afternoon with the cold front and including VCSH at all TAF sites
after 16Z.

Winds this evening from the south to southwest at around 10 Kt, with
occasional gusts over 15 Kt at KALB and KPSF, but also around
thunderstorms.  WInds shift to west through daybreak Monday and
northwest Monday morning. Winds will be northwest at around 10 Kt
Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...NAS