834
FXUS61 KALY 010736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
336 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring some clouds and isolated
showers to portions of the region this morning, followed by
clearing this afternoon. High pressure will then bring fair
weather tonight through Wednesday along with a warming trend.
Independence Day will be very warm and humid, with a stray
afternoon thunderstorm possible in a few locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM EDT, low clouds have expanded across much of the
region outside of the mid Hudson Valley, southern Litchfield
County CT and SE VT. Isolated sprinkles were occurring across
some higher terrain areas of the southern Adirondacks/southern
VT.

Upper level trough and reinforcing cold front will be moving
across the region this morning, keeping areas of low clouds and
isolated showers/sprinkles across the region. As core of mid
level cold pool (H500 temps ~ -18C) moves through, shallow
instability may allow for a brief uptick in shower coverage,
especially for areas near and south of I-90, and east of I-87.

Increasing subsidence and gradual mid level warming from west to
east in the wake of slow mid-level trough passage should allow
for clouds to decrease in coverage this afternoon.

It will be breezy with fairly deep mixing to ~H750, allowing for
north winds to gust up to 25-30 mph at times, especially within
the Hudson River Valley. High temperatures should reach 75-80 in
most valley areas by late afternoon, while remaining cooler,
generally mid 60s to around 70 across higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure approaches the region tonight, allowing for winds
to become light to calm amid a dry air mass with PWAT`s dropping
to 0.50-0.75". This should allow temps to drop off into the 50s
for most areas, with 40s across higher elevations and portions
of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Would not be
surprised if a few upper 30s occur within the most sheltered
areas of the SW Adirondacks.

Fair weather with gradual warming expected for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with just occasional high/mid level clouds streaming
through, especially Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s Wednesday for most valley
locations. Tuesday night lows in the mid 50s to around 60,
except around 50 across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

An approaching warm front from the west may bring some
showers/embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday night for
portions of the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region, with
some possibility reaching as far south/east of the Capital
Region and Lake George/Saratoga region into southern VT. It will
be warmer due to clouds and some wind, with lows generally in
the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure located
across northern Quebec will cross the region on Thursday,
Independence Day. The best forcing looks to be to our north and
south. As a result, only expecting isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Otherwise, it will turn out to be a very warm day with highs in the
mid-80s to lower 90s across the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s
across the higher elevations.

This front looks to stall Thursday night into early Friday just to
our south before lifting back northward as a warm front Friday into
Friday night. Then, an area of low pressure tracking northeastward
over the Great Lakes will send a cold front through our area on
Saturday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast both Friday and Saturday. Very warm and humid
conditions will continue both days as well with highs once again in
the mid-80s to around 90 in the valleys with upper 70s to lower 80s
across the higher elevations.

Weak high pressure may build over the region on Sunday. While Sunday
looks drier compared to Saturday, continued warm and humid
conditions could result in a pop up shower or thunderstorm during
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z/Tue...High pressure will slowly build into the region
through the upcoming TAF period. Patchy MVFR/VFR stratocumulus
clouds will be around through the overnight trending to just some
fair weather cumulus above 5000 feet on Monday. Skies will then
trend clear Monday evening with the high building overhead.

West to northwesterly wind mainly between 5 and 10 kt overnight will
become north to northwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt on
Monday. Wind will decrease to less than 10 kt Monday evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Rathbun