Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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264 FXUS61 KALY 181957 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 357 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure continues through tonight with increasing clouds as a weather system moves along the Atlantic Coast. This weather system could bring chances of rain showers into Thursday. Friday could see some lingering showers in the Mid- Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills region, otherwise dry conditions are in store into this weekend through early next week with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Zone of thick high clouds in much of eastern NY and western New England but satellite picture trends show the high clouds shifting north and some more scattered lower clouds just south of the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley holding nearly stationary. Upper ridging north and west of the developing coastal system well south of Long Island may enhance some subsidence and allow for the high clouds to thin through the evening and night with some possible river and wetland fog again, and some scattered low clouds across the region. Light to calm winds will help for some radiational cooling where the high clouds thin and where there is clearing. Low level dew points have risen as boundary layer flow had become more east to southeast. So, once temperatures approach dew points later tonight, again, patchy fog with low temperatures a little warmer than past nights. Lows in the mid to upper 50s with around 50 to lower 50s northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... System offshore continues to organize and there are some differences in sources of guidance/ensembles as to how far north and west the rain shield gets. Intervals of clouds and sun Thursday as any northern edge of any precipitation shield would hold off until Friday, with the best chances on Friday in the mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. A northern stream upper impulse dropping out of far eastern Canada is expected to push slightly cooler air from the north and east into our region and that low level forcing could interact with the coastal storm, supporting the scattered showers in our region. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out from the Schoharie Valley to Capital Region to southern Vermont. So, with the intervals of clouds and sun Thursday, and more clouds with more clouds south and east of the Capital Region, temperatures will be a little cooler than recent days, but highs Thursday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Friday, the better chance of showers with the weak backdoor front and northern precipitation shield from the coastal storm, highs in the mid to upper 70s with lower 70s higher terrain. Lingering clouds and isolated showers east of the Hudson River Saturday with less cloud cover west of the Hudson River as the coastal system begins to slowly exit and the weak backdoor front washes out. Highs Saturday around 70 to mid 70s. Slowly improving sky Saturday night, especially in western areas with lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Flat upper ridging builds in from the west, as overall upper heights fall with an approaching developing upper impulse approaches from Canada and the Great Lakes, dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with possible showers by later Tuesday through Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. There are lots of differences in sources of guidance as to the strength of the upper energy, the timing and any colder air as the system exits. Temperatures will at least be normal, with a chance for a bit above normal if the upper ridging weakens the upper energy and there is less cool air behind the system. But for now, the best chances for showers look to be later Tuesday and Wednesday but confidence is low. Highs Sunday through Wednesday in the upper 60s to lower 70s with cooler in higher elevations. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z/Thu...VFR conditions are expected for much of the upcoming TAF period as a low pressure system to the south spreads bkn-ovc high clouds across the TAF sites. The exception would be for any patchy fog development tonight. The high cloud deck may be thick enough to prevent fog formation at most sites. KGFL may be most favored for fog as cloud thickness and coverage will be lower compared to elsewhere and is more climatologically favored. As a result, will introduce reduced vsbys at just KGFL with this update and keep all other sites VFR for now. Enough dry air in the low levels should prevent any precipitation through 18z/Thu. Light and variable wind at 5 kt or less will continue through this afternoon before trending calm tonight. Wind will increase to 5 to 10 kt out of the north to northeast Thursday morning. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Rathbun