929
FXUS64 KAMA 210543
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Showers with isolated storms continue to move into the southern
Panhandles from Tropical Storm Alberto. Most of these are fairly
stable showers and the lightning threat is pretty minimal at this
time. There may be a little uptick in lightning as we move into
the later afternoon to early evening hours, with increased heating
and instability. Overall, if showers enhance into storms, the main
concern will be lightning, but we could have brief intense rain
rates given the tropical moisture advection over the area and
PWAT`s approaching 1.50". The southerly flow will shift more
southwesterly into Friday. The moisture will shift more to the
western Panhandles for Friday, but it`s possible that we don`t see
any showers or storms at all, as it may stay isolated to eastern
NM.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help
suppress the high over the southeast CONUS. This will help
transition the overall flow to a more zonal flow. Temperatures
will gradually rise, but the chances of showers and storms will be
limited. As we move into Sunday the trough will be further to the
east over the Great Lakes and that will help the zonal flow
transition to more northwest flow as the high rebuilds over the
Four Corners. This will lead to a decent chance of showers and
storms on Sunday evening, as there is a more pronounced shortwave
embedded in that flow. Monday looks pretty similar to Sunday, but
a weaker shortwave so a lower probability of showers or storms.
Tuesday and Wednesday will once again have a better shortwave and
a more amplified ridge associated, so temperatures will be even
warmer, RH values will be quite high for our area leading to heat
index`s in the 100-108 range across most area, as well as more
scattered storms.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are in place for now, but a shield of mid to low
clouds is progressing northward into the Panhandles this
evening. By morning hours, MVFR ceilings should have arrived at
KAMA and KDHT, with slightly lower confidence that low ceilings
will impact KGUY. Ceilings should lift some to VFR levels during
the day as winds increase out of the southwest at 15-30 kts. Also
can`t rule out some afternoon showers at KAMA and KDHT, but
confidence remains on the low side. Otherwise expect conditions
to further improve through the end of the period after 00z.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  68  95  71 /  10   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  89  69  97  69 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              84  65  94  66 /  20   0  10  10
Borger TX                  91  71 100  73 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              86  68  96  70 /  20  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  83  66  92  68 /  10   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               85  68  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 84  64  95  65 /  20  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  87  66  96  67 /  10   0   0  10
Hereford TX                85  67  95  69 /  20   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                91  71  98  73 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   87  69  96  72 /  10   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                89  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              89  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38