761
FXUS64 KAMA 161729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Showers with isolated thunderstorms are developing in the NW
combined Panhandles as of 0530z as a result of embedded
perturbations in the flow aloft, and possibly being aided by being
on the nose of a 850mb jet. CAMs aren`t handling this activity well,
but it is moving into a more moist environment. Although SPC
mesoanalysis suggests there is around 1000-2000 J/kg of instability
ahead of it, the amount of effective instability based off near-term
model forecast soundings in the vicinity seems to be less.
Nonetheless, given the trends and the upstream environment, this
activity may continue southeastward through the night and some
thunderstorms are possible but the chance for a strong to severe
thunderstorm seems very low.

Expecting much of the daytime hours to be dry today as the
atmosphere recovers from the overnight showers and thunderstorms. A
surface low will develop and strengthen to around 995mb throughout
the day, tightening the surface pressure gradient which will result
in breezy southerly winds. Temperatures will warm into the mid to
upper-90s this afternoon which should result in a weakly to non-
capped atmosphere such that any perturbation that moves into the
area could produce a thunderstorm. This would be most favored (15-
20% chance) in the western combined Panhandles and the Oklahoma
Panhandle (10% chance). The main limiting factors in the potential
for thunderstorms this afternoon is the timing and location of any
perturbation in the flow aloft. The mid-level winds look weaker than
yesterday which leads to effective wind shear being more in the 20-
30 kt range which suggests multi-cells would be the more favored
storm mode. On the other hand, the atmosphere has the potential to
be more unstable with MLCAPE potentially being as high as 2000-2500
J/kg. Therefore, if a thunderstorm does develop, it could become
strong to severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and
large hail. Any thunderstorm that can develop should dissipate in
the evening hours as CIN increases. Breezy southerly winds
continue through the night.

Monday, the upper-level trough in the Northwestern US will move
eastward slightly and the upper-level flow over the Panhandles will
strengthen. Breezy southerly winds are expected to continue through
Monday, but a surface trough should develop in eastern New Mexico
and mix eastward through the day into the northwestern combined
Panhandles. Again, if the cap weakens enough, any weak perturbation
in the flow aloft could be enough to force thunderstorms. This would
be most favored (15% chance) in the western combined Panhandles
ahead of the surface trough. There is a low chance that these
thunderstorms could be strong to severe with the primary threat
being damaging winds and large hail. Convective activity should
decrease through the evening hours, and once again, breezy winds
will continue through the night due to the tight surface pressure
gradient.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A fairly active pattern is progged to return Tuesday with some
relief from the above average temperatures starting Wed. At least
parts of the combined Panhandles are looking to carry a 20 to 30
PoPs from Tue night through Sat night. After one last day of highs
in the 90s Tue, highs are progged to be in the 80s Wed through
Fri, with Sat potentially warming to the 90s again.

Going into Tue upper level troughing over western CONUS will
continue to bring southwesterly flow aloft for the combined
Panhandles Tue into Wed. Closer to the surface high pressure to
the east-southeast is expected to feed in some Gulf moisture and
also increase the surface pressure gradient as low pressure sits
over portions of CO and NM. Breezy 25 to 30 mph winds are
possible on Tuesday afternoon, with wind gusts of 35 to
potentially 40 mph over the northeastern combined Panhandles. Some
instability from the Gulf moisture coming in will aide in
thunderstorm potential starting Tue night. One possible inhibiting
factor for early storms Tue afternoon will be a warm layer around
H7 that could keep surface based storms from forming. Its not
until the overnight hours into Wed morning where some
perturbations in the flow aloft may help spark some thunderstorms.
Also, a weak cold front is progged to move into the area going
into Wed morning which may help storm activity and help cool
daytime temperatures in the 80s for Wed afternoon. Overall,
confidence is low at this time in having widespread severe
thunderstorms.

Going into Thu, while still under southwest flow aloft a tropical
system is progged to move onto the Texas coast bringing quite a
bit of Gulf moisture with it. This may feed some precipitation
chances in the combined Panhandles Thu into Fri. Have stayed with
the NBM PoPs for now which have 30s mainly in the southern TX
Panhandle Thu afternoon and favoring the west on Fri. Will have to
wait and see how this system progresses on land Thu and Fri, to
see who gets the rain and how much rain falls.

Going into Sat high pressure aloft begins to dominate much of
southern CONUS from FL westward to AZ. High temperatures over the
FA are then progged to return to the 90s. With perturbations in
the ridge aloft there will still be a slight chance PoPs for Sat
afternoon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Surfaces winds will likely remain breezy to gust for most of the
afternoon and evening thanks to a lee-side surface low off the
southern portions of the Front Ranges. Look for speeds to be in
the 20 to 25 mph range with gust nearing 35 mph at times. Low
chances at thunderstorms still exist this afternoon with KDHT and
KGUY still having the better chances of seeing impacts. However,
latest models runs are still not to enthusiastic about the
possibility with some only giving a 15 to 20% chance at an
isolated storm. Have left the vicinity showers present in the TAF
package for now, given that confidence is not high enough for
anything else. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold outside of
any storm interference.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  94  69  93 /  20  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  71  96  70  96 /  20  10  10  10
Boise City OK              67  99  67  98 /  20  10  10   0
Borger TX                  73  99  72  97 /  20  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              70  98  71  97 /  20  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  69  94  68  92 /  20  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               69  91  69  90 /  10   0  10   0
Dalhart TX                 66  98  66  97 /  20  20  10   0
Guymon OK                  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  20  10
Hereford TX                69  96  69  95 /  20  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                71  95  71  94 /  20   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   70  93  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                71  94  70  92 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              72  94  71  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...11