471
FXUS64 KAMA 221733
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

- Thunderstorms are possible today and once again on Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected on either of
  these days at this time.

- Much cooler temperatures are forecast today with highs ranging
  from the upper 50s to upper 60s across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass across the
Panhandles today with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Some
showers/storms will be possible out ahead and potentially behind
the front today. Drier conditions are forecast on Monday along
with highs in the 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the
Panhandles early this morning. Some of the storms could be
producing small hail in addition to heavy rainfall. Storms
currently are not training over the same locations so flash
flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Shower and
storm coverage should continue to decrease as we get closer to
sunrise today.

The H500 low pressure system that brought the rain chances to the
region over the last 24 hours will weaken and move off to the
northeast during the day today. At the surface, a strong cold
front will quickly move south across the Panhandles. In its wake,
north winds are very likely with gusts upwards of 35 mph during
the day today. The front will also usher in much cooler air at
H850, with model H850 temperatures dropping down to the upper
single digits Celsius by late this afternoon. With persistent
cloud cover in place across the region and with this cooler air
quickly moving in, highs today will likely stay in the 60s to
potentially upper 50s for the Panhandles. Some showers or storms
will be possible across mainly the southeast during the daytime
today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected should any storms
develop across the southeast today. Monday looks to be a rather
quiet day weather wise with highs warming back up into the 70s
area wide with light winds under 15 mph during the day.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Consistent temperatures near average are expected Tuesday into
early next weekend for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Rain
chances return on Tuesday into early Wednesday before drier
conditions are expected going into the later half of the work
week.

Broad troughing aloft is forecast on Tuesday with the southern
extent of the trough moving across the southern High Plains during
the daytime hours. The evolution of the trough continues to vary
amongst the model guidance, but the operational EC is now
suggesting the trough will remain an open wave similar to the
pattern that the GFS and its ensembles have been suggesting for a
few days. The Canadian continues to suggest a closed low, but
with the center of low pressure to the southeast. With that being
said, confidence with the forecast beyond Tuesday remains low.
The overall trend looks to bring near average high temperatures
each day with the potential for some rain on Tuesday and Wednesday
as the base of the trough moves across the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR ceilings persist at KAMA and KGUY and should continue to
persist through at least the next couple of hours. There is quite
a bit of uncertainty as to how long the MVFR ceilings persist,
thus amendments will likely be needed through this afternoon.
Otherwise, breezy to gusty northerly winds are anticipated through
the afternoon becoming light and variable tonight through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                46  76  54  79 /  10   0   0  30
Beaver OK                  43  72  48  76 /   0   0   0  20
Boise City OK              41  74  49  74 /   0   0   0  20
Borger TX                  46  79  53  82 /   0   0   0  30
Boys Ranch TX              44  77  52  79 /   0   0   0  30
Canyon TX                  45  76  53  78 /  10   0   0  40
Clarendon TX               48  75  54  79 /  20   0   0  40
Dalhart TX                 41  75  48  76 /   0   0   0  20
Guymon OK                  40  74  47  76 /   0   0   0  20
Hereford TX                45  79  52  80 /  10   0   0  30
Lipscomb TX                46  73  50  79 /  10   0   0  30
Pampa TX                   45  74  53  78 /  10   0   0  40
Shamrock TX                49  75  53  80 /  30  10   0  40
Wellington TX              51  76  54  82 /  50  10   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52