Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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249 FXUS64 KAMA 151851 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles into central Kansas. The Panhandles are on the subsidence side of this departing short wave, but instability and moisture continue to linger. The moisture and instability will likely be enough to force some more thunderstorms to develop mainly across the southeast half of the area, so have continued with pops there this afternoon and evening. Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough, so have mentioned some low chances there. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon in the northwest along a surface trough. The upper level forcing is not the greatest, but with warm temperatures and low level moisture, the instability may be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. Highs on Sunday are expected to be about 5 to 10 degree above average. && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 The Panhandles look to continue this active pattern as we head into new week. Currently models are expecting southwesterly upper- level flow over the Panhandles thanks to a decent trough setting up in the Pacific Northwest for Monday and Tuesday. While normally this would result in drier weather, a few short-waves will look to keep potential in place as they force a pseudo dry line boundary to set up around the western Panhandles. The question then becomes whether this boundary or the short-wave will be enough to overcome any cap to have storms initiate. As it stands models and guidance do not favor Monday with a 15% chance of any precipitation present at best. However, Tuesday looks to see better and more widespread chances for the Northern portions of the Panhandles with chances closer to 20 to 30% for the afternoon. Regardless should storms form either day, then potential will be present for those storms to go severe with MLCAPE currently projected to be greater than 1000 J/kg each afternoon. Heading into Wednesday and the end of the week, models expect upper-level flow to weaken quite a bit as the Panhandles fall under the two 500mb high pressure systems holding in the east and southwestern portions of the United States. However rather than leaving us dry, this set up will allow for good southeasterly flow in the lower levels, which will allow for good moisture to move over the area. As it stands, most models are already calling for PWATs to once again be over one inch for the most of the Panhandles clear into the weekend. This will also, lead to chances of thunderstorms and showers every afternoon with current best chances (25 to 35%) be seen by the models on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, look for this moisture to keep us to a more seasonable normal temperature scale with most locations in the 80s to low 90s for afternoon high temperatures. Scoleri && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A thunderstorm may affect the AMA TAF site with brief heavy rain and gusty winds this afternoon or early this evening. Otherwise, skies are expected to remain VFR at all TAF sites. South and southwest winds in the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts will decrease and back some with the setting sun. South and southwest winds will pick up again by mid to late morning Sunday into the 15 to 20 knot range with higher gusts at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 67 93 70 95 / 30 0 10 10 Beaver OK 67 98 69 97 / 30 10 10 10 Boise City OK 64 98 67 98 / 20 10 0 0 Borger TX 69 98 73 99 / 20 10 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 66 97 71 99 / 30 0 10 10 Canyon TX 65 93 69 94 / 30 0 10 10 Clarendon TX 67 92 69 92 / 20 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 97 66 98 / 20 10 10 10 Guymon OK 65 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0 Hereford TX 66 95 69 97 / 30 0 10 10 Lipscomb TX 69 96 70 95 / 30 10 10 0 Pampa TX 67 93 69 93 / 20 0 10 10 Shamrock TX 69 94 70 94 / 20 0 0 0 Wellington TX 70 95 71 95 / 20 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...15