Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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019 FXUS64 KAMA 141931 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level transitions eastward. More perturbations will exit lee side of the Rocky Mountains and move in from the northwest generating additional chances for thunderstorms heading into the weekend. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90`s; and with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be on the higher side through the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will also continue, especially for our northern zones, through the short term period. In the afternoon each day, sufficient instability and shear will be present for storms to become severe. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and some hail will continue to be the primary hazards. Places that have already received much rainfall over these past few days may begin or continue to see flooding risks. Today, showers and thunderstorms are diminishing from our morning convection. A new shortwave trough will move through from the northwest and clusters of storms will enter the CWA later this evening. Cold pools and early outflow from our previous convection have a chance to hinder our severe potential. However, showers should still occur given our favorable Theta-E profiles positioned in the western CWA. After sunset, thunderstorm endeavors should should taper off but showers can persist overnight and into the morning hours. Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless today`s setup under performs. And with this more traditional spring time regime progged from our mesoscale features, thunderstorm timing will be a bit earlier in the afternoon and evening. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mostly dry conditions are expected to start the long term forecast period. Latest 14/12Z model and numerical data shows a pronounced sinusoidal synoptic pattern across the entire CONUS. Focusing on the southern High Plains, H500 SW flow will help with LL subsidence and keep the Panhandles mostly dry. By mid week next week, as the main H500 anti-cyclonic feature over the eastern 2/3 CONUS expands back to the west, perturbations in the mid levels should help to generate showers and thunderstorms. These perturbations should allow very good low to mid level moisture transport from the Gulf to reach the Panhandles. Better rain chances return from mid week next week to the end of the forecast period. Some storms could be strong, and with repeated rounds of low level moisture with PWAT values in the 99th percentile for June standards, we will have to watch the potential for flooding during this time period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 TAFs are conditionally VFR through the new 18Z period. Thunderstorms are possible at all TAF sites later this evening and through the night time hours. Some storms could be severe, and heavy rainfall will drop ceilings and visibility to MVFR, possibly IFR if a persistent core can move directly over a terminal. Later in the morning, some rouge shower activity could persist in the vicinity of the terminals, but few impacts are expected at this time. Winds speeds at the surface will increase later on tomorrow afternoon from the south. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 91 66 93 / 70 30 30 0 Beaver OK 67 92 67 98 / 30 30 20 10 Boise City OK 60 92 63 98 / 90 20 10 10 Borger TX 69 95 68 98 / 60 30 20 0 Boys Ranch TX 64 92 66 97 / 80 20 20 0 Canyon TX 64 90 64 93 / 70 30 30 0 Clarendon TX 67 90 66 91 / 20 20 20 0 Dalhart TX 60 90 62 97 / 90 20 10 0 Guymon OK 63 92 65 97 / 70 30 10 10 Hereford TX 65 92 66 95 / 80 30 20 0 Lipscomb TX 68 93 69 97 / 20 30 20 0 Pampa TX 67 89 66 93 / 40 30 20 0 Shamrock TX 68 93 69 94 / 10 20 20 0 Wellington TX 69 94 71 94 / 10 10 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55