Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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950 FXUS64 KAMA 141124 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the southern tip of NV. This system is progged to open into a shortwave trough and traverse the combined Panhandles. This will bring some thunderstorms chances late this evening into the overnight hours. These storms will primarily impact the western to northwestern combined Panhandles. Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 90s once again. Positive H7 theta-e advection of 330 to 340K will be in place over the northwestern third to half of the combined Panhandles again today. This good moisture advection will be helpful for thunderstorms to work with as the leading edge of the aforementioned shortwave approaches the FA later today. Severe storms cannot be ruled out as there is a potential for effective CAPE values between 800 (RAP) and 2500 J/Kg (NAM). The higher of this being towards Cimarron County. Bulk shear is progged to be around 15 to 30 kts depending on which model is looked at. Regardless of the CAPE and shear, conditions still favor high based storms with DCAPE values approaching 1800 J/Kg allowing for damaging winds to be the main concern. For Sat, the aforementioned shortwave trough will suppress H5 heights slightly allowing for afternoon highs to be in the lower 90s instead of mid to upper 90s. Positive H7 theta-e advection will continue into much of the combined Panhandles for Sat leading to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. With out the help of the leading edge of the shortwave trough, thunderstorms will need a little bit of extra help from convective temperatures or perturbations in the flow aloft. Have about a 20 to 30 percent chance for these thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Severe storms once again cannot be ruled out with damaging straight line winds the main threat. Bulk shear looks very marginal with effective CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg. Again, high based storms are expected with DCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/Kg. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Have stayed with the NBM values for the forecast in the extended period. Afternoon temperatures are progged to return to the mid to upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday with no real chances for precipitation during this time. Tue night an upper level trough will dig down the Intermountain West and approach the FA bringing some suppression to the H5 heights of the combined Panhandles. This is to bring some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to possibly lower 90s Wed onward and will also bring back some PoPs into the forecast. Tue night will be when some slight chance to chance PoPs return to the combined Panhandles as well. 36 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through about 00Z Sat or so. There is a slight chance for some showers to impact KDHT or KGUY before then. However, confidence is low at this time, with increased confidence of thunderstorms picking up towards the latter half of this period. Winds will be out of the south 5 to 15 kts with some gusts picking up to around 20 to 25 kts after 20Z. Thunderstorm winds in the last 6 hours of this period may become variable and strong at times. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 94 66 92 67 / 10 40 30 20 Beaver OK 98 68 92 68 / 0 30 30 20 Boise City OK 93 61 93 64 / 40 60 20 10 Borger TX 99 69 97 69 / 10 40 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 96 66 95 66 / 20 60 30 20 Canyon TX 93 65 92 65 / 10 40 30 20 Clarendon TX 92 67 91 67 / 0 20 20 20 Dalhart TX 93 61 93 62 / 30 60 20 10 Guymon OK 95 64 94 64 / 20 50 30 10 Hereford TX 95 66 94 66 / 10 50 20 20 Lipscomb TX 98 69 94 68 / 0 20 30 20 Pampa TX 94 67 92 68 / 10 30 30 20 Shamrock TX 95 69 94 70 / 0 10 20 20 Wellington TX 96 69 95 70 / 0 10 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36