902
FXUS64 KAMA 200810
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

- Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Sunday with some
  of the storms having the potential to be severe, with damaging
  winds and large hail being the primary hazards in addition to
  heavy rainfall.

- Record breaking high temperatures are likely today with
  afternoon high temperatures near or just over the century mark.

- Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast early to mid next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Another day of record breaking high temperatures is forecast for
today for portions of the Panhandles. For areas in the west and
north, rain chances return to the region with a low potential for
a strong to severe storm across the north central/northeast. A
more active day weather wise is likely on Saturday with cooler
temperatures and widespread chances for thunderstorms, some of
which could be severe.

Early this morning, a plume of higher H700 theta-e resides across
the eastern TX Panhandle into Oklahoma and has generated a few
showers/storms that have since moved into western Oklahoma.
Additional storm development is currently not expected for the
Panhandles this morning. Lows on this Friday morning should be in
the upper 50s to the northwest to low 70s to the southeast.

High pressure is forecast to remain across much of Texas today
with a strong H500 low pressure system slowly moving across
California towards the southern tip of Nevada by this evening.
With high pressure in place today, another hot day is very likely
as H850 temperatures warm up to near 30 Celsius by peak heating
this afternoon. These hot temperatures will lead to some locations
reaching the triple digit mark once again, with record breaking
temperatures likely at Amarillo and Borger for today. Further west
and northwest for the Panhandles, cooler temperatures in the upper
80s to low 90s are forecast due to increasing cloud cover into the
afternoon hours out ahead of a shortwave trough embedded in the
upper level flow. This shortwave will provide ample lift to
generate showers and thunderstorms across the area of higher mid
level moisture. DCAPE values may be upwards of 1500 J/kg per
forecast soundings which would be favorable for strong downburst
winds, so a few strong to severe storms will be possible today.
Shower and thunderstorm chances should wane around midnight as the
shortwave exits off to the northeast.

The upper level low will move closer to the Panhandles on Saturday
and should be located near the Four Corners region by Saturday
afternoon. The synoptic lift provided by the low pressure system
will aid in generating showers and thunderstorms across NM and TX
late Saturday morning through the night. Some of the storms will
have the potential to become severe, but there are uncertainties
with the overall severe threat. Cloud cover due to the abundance
of moisture will limit daytime heating across the west and
northwest, which may result in less instability for this area.
The best chance for a strong to severe storm looks to be across
the southwestern Texas Panhandle, where the highest MLCAPE values
are forecast to be along with plentiful shear. Damaging wind gusts
and large hail will be the primary threats if a discrete
supercell is able to make it into the Panhandles. The more
impactful concern may be heavy rainfall associated with the
thunderstorms. PWAT values are forecast to be above the 90th
percentile and multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible
through Saturday night. The Panhandles have been very dry as of
late so that may limit the potential flash flood threat, but
urban areas will still be prone should enough heavy rainfall move
over these locations. Details and model trends will need to be
monitored over the next day with regards to the severe and flash
flood threats.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Sunday through next work week looks to feature near average
temperatures and off and on precipitation chances. Model guidance
deviates by early to mid next week with regards to potential
temperatures and precipitation chances.

The upper level low pressure system that brought the
precipitation chances to the region on Saturday should be centered
around northeastern Colorado come daybreak on Sunday. Plentiful
moisture should remain across the area and with any subtle lift
provided by the low pressure system before it moves too far away
should generate some showers or storms during the daytime hours on
Sunday. With persistent cloud cover in place over the CWA on
Sunday, cool afternoon highs in the 60s to upper 70s are currently
forecast. A surface cold front is forecast to propel southward
over the Great Plains during the daytime hours and should move
through the Panhandles by Sunday evening. Northerly winds behind
the front are almost guaranteed as the front moves through with
gusts potentially as high as 30 to 35 mph. This cold front will
usher in cooler air which will aid in keeping the aforementioned
daytime highs on the cooler side. The synoptic pattern varies
tremendously with the 20/00z suite of ensemble guidance past
Monday. The general consensus is that temperatures should stay
near average with the potential for precipitation for some
locations across the Southern Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Winds will become
southerly to southwesterly and will increase near 18z at all sites
with gusts up to 25 kts expected. Showers and thunderstorms will
be possible at KDHT and KGUY late in this TAF cycle, but
confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this
time. Winds should decrease after 00z unless a shower or storm is
near a terminal.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  68  88  60 /  10  10  60  80
Beaver OK                  99  68  88  56 /  30  20  60  90
Boise City OK              88  61  75  49 /  40  20  80  90
Borger TX                 101  69  93  60 /  20  20  60  80
Boys Ranch TX              95  65  85  57 /  30  20  80  90
Canyon TX                  96  66  88  59 /  10  10  60  80
Clarendon TX              100  68  92  62 /   0  10  30  60
Dalhart TX                 88  61  76  52 /  40  30  80  90
Guymon OK                  95  65  83  53 /  40  20  70  90
Hereford TX                96  66  88  59 /  10  20  70  80
Lipscomb TX               101  71  93  60 /  20  20  40  70
Pampa TX                   97  68  90  60 /  10  10  50  80
Shamrock TX               100  69  95  64 /   0   0  20  50
Wellington TX             103  70  96  66 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05