Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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471 FXUS64 KAMA 221733 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Thunderstorms are possible today and once again on Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected on either of these days at this time. - Much cooler temperatures are forecast today with highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s across the Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass across the Panhandles today with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Some showers/storms will be possible out ahead and potentially behind the front today. Drier conditions are forecast on Monday along with highs in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the Panhandles early this morning. Some of the storms could be producing small hail in addition to heavy rainfall. Storms currently are not training over the same locations so flash flooding does not appear to be a threat at this time. Shower and storm coverage should continue to decrease as we get closer to sunrise today. The H500 low pressure system that brought the rain chances to the region over the last 24 hours will weaken and move off to the northeast during the day today. At the surface, a strong cold front will quickly move south across the Panhandles. In its wake, north winds are very likely with gusts upwards of 35 mph during the day today. The front will also usher in much cooler air at H850, with model H850 temperatures dropping down to the upper single digits Celsius by late this afternoon. With persistent cloud cover in place across the region and with this cooler air quickly moving in, highs today will likely stay in the 60s to potentially upper 50s for the Panhandles. Some showers or storms will be possible across mainly the southeast during the daytime today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected should any storms develop across the southeast today. Monday looks to be a rather quiet day weather wise with highs warming back up into the 70s area wide with light winds under 15 mph during the day. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Consistent temperatures near average are expected Tuesday into early next weekend for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Rain chances return on Tuesday into early Wednesday before drier conditions are expected going into the later half of the work week. Broad troughing aloft is forecast on Tuesday with the southern extent of the trough moving across the southern High Plains during the daytime hours. The evolution of the trough continues to vary amongst the model guidance, but the operational EC is now suggesting the trough will remain an open wave similar to the pattern that the GFS and its ensembles have been suggesting for a few days. The Canadian continues to suggest a closed low, but with the center of low pressure to the southeast. With that being said, confidence with the forecast beyond Tuesday remains low. The overall trend looks to bring near average high temperatures each day with the potential for some rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as the base of the trough moves across the Panhandles. Muscha && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR ceilings persist at KAMA and KGUY and should continue to persist through at least the next couple of hours. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to how long the MVFR ceilings persist, thus amendments will likely be needed through this afternoon. Otherwise, breezy to gusty northerly winds are anticipated through the afternoon becoming light and variable tonight through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 46 76 54 79 / 10 0 0 30 Beaver OK 43 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 20 Boise City OK 41 74 49 74 / 0 0 0 20 Borger TX 46 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 30 Boys Ranch TX 44 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 30 Canyon TX 45 76 53 78 / 10 0 0 40 Clarendon TX 48 75 54 79 / 20 0 0 40 Dalhart TX 41 75 48 76 / 0 0 0 20 Guymon OK 40 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 20 Hereford TX 45 79 52 80 / 10 0 0 30 Lipscomb TX 46 73 50 79 / 10 0 0 30 Pampa TX 45 74 53 78 / 10 0 0 40 Shamrock TX 49 75 53 80 / 30 10 0 40 Wellington TX 51 76 54 82 / 50 10 0 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...52