219
FXUS64 KAMA 180533
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Another chance at showers and thunderstorms presents itself today
as we see a short-wave trof brush across the Panhandles later
this afternoon. This short-wave will allow for a weak dry line to
push back into the western potions of the Panhandles and act as a
potential boundary for storms to develop and break the present
cap. Should something develop and stay sustained, there is enough
ingredients present for any thunderstorms to turn severe with last
CAMs still presenting 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with effective
bulk shear around 35kt in places. While this will be enough to see
large hail develop in a thunderstorm, the bigger concern may fall
in the damaging straight line wind category. Currently models are
seeing at least 1800 J/kg of DCAPE present for the afternoon and
evening time frame, which is a good indication of strong outflow
and down burst winds with potential present to see gusts upwards
of 70 mph. Meanwhile, the present breezy to gusty surface winds
will look to hold through the evening hours as the lee-side
surface low holds just off the Southern Front Range. Expect winds
to stay southerly to southwesterly for most of the day, which
will also aid in keeping temperatures warm and in the mid to upper
90s.

As for Tuesday, similar circumstances will look to be present as
another short-wave trof moves though and keeps the dry line east
of where it has been for the last couple of weeks. Once again,
expect the boundary to be our main point initiation for storms
that afternoon, with many of the CAMs favoring the northern
Panhandles as our best chances for development. However, many
models are trending towards a much stronger cap to be in place for
the afternoon, which has made our best chances only be 20 to 30%
for the afternoon. Regardless should something actually develop,
MLCAPE is expected to be better with some of the north seeing
values above 2000 J/kg that afternoon. However, shear is looking
much weaker at this time with models only placing around 25kt in
those same areas. This lack of shear may make it hard for storms
to stay sustained long enough to develop large hail, but damaging
winds could still be present, especially with DCAPE reaching
upwards of 1900 J/kg. Otherwise, expect similar breezy to gusty
conditions to exist tomorrow as well. These winds could
potentially create elevated to low-end critical fire weather
conditions for far northwestern portions of the Panhandles.
However, confidence in this very low given the recent
precipitation in the area as well as the potential precipitation
that may fall that day.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For Wednesday through Sunday, medium range models and ensemble
members suggest the upper level ridge will expand westward to
encompass the southern states from Arizona to Florida as the
western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward
across the north central states. That said, the overall strength
of this upper level ridge will dictate how much moisture, if any,
advects northwestward into our area from expected development of a
possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days. The latest 12Z medium range models and
associated ensembles have continued to trend more towards a
stronger upper level ridge which, if progged correctly, would act
to steer the potential tropical system more westward as opposed to
northwestward during the Wednesday through Friday time period. If
that occurs in a manner similar to yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF, then
the deep moisture may remain well south and southeast of our
forecast area without much of a northwestward component and,
therefore, a reduced threat for showers and thunderstorms. Latest
NBM pops have trended down a a bit from 24 hours ago and may be
reflecting latest model trends. Therefore, have sided with the NBM
pops for Wednesday through Sunday. Expect further refinements to
the forecast during the coming days as models begin to converge on
a common solution regarding the upper level pattern and eventual
strength of the progged sprawling high pressure for the middle to
latter part of this week.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Aside from overnight LLWS, VFR conditions are expected at all
sites throughout the period. A 50 kt LLJ is set up over much of
the Panhandles tonight, with breezy 20-30 kt winds at the sfc,
allowing for some LLWS to exist. This will gradually go away this
morning as the LLJ subsides. Winds stay breezy out of the south
tomorrow, and a few thunderstorms will be possible again mainly
near KAMA and KGUY. Confidence is low, but thunderstorm mentions
may be needed in later TAF issuances.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  69  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
Beaver OK                  95  69  88  64 /  10  30  40  30
Boise City OK              98  60  84  61 /  10  20  50  50
Borger TX                  97  71  91  66 /  10  20  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              97  69  89  65 /  10  20  30  40
Canyon TX                  92  68  85  63 /  10  10  20  30
Clarendon TX               89  68  84  63 /  10  10  10  20
Dalhart TX                 98  63  86  61 /  10  20  40  50
Guymon OK                  97  65  87  63 /  10  30  40  40
Hereford TX                94  69  87  64 /  10  10  20  40
Lipscomb TX                93  69  88  65 /   0  20  30  20
Pampa TX                   90  69  86  64 /  10  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                92  69  85  65 /  10  10  10  20
Wellington TX              92  70  85  66 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38