Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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223 FXUS64 KAMA 220522 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - Thunderstorms are very likely today across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two are also possible this afternoon through early this evening, mainly in the southwest Texas Panhandle. - The thunderstorms today through Sunday morning could also produce very heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding, especially from this evening through tonight across the central and southern Texas Panhandle. - A cold front will bring in much cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs in the 50s to 60s across the combined Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The upper level low pressure system is currently over northern AZ as of this writing. The moisture plume in between this low and the high pressure system over central and southeastern TX can be seen quite well at this time on GOES water vapor imagery. Widespread showers and thunderstorms can be seen over eastern NM entering the western combined Panhandles at this time. As well as some isolated to scattered storms out ahead of the main convection near Dumas and Hereford. Water vapor imagery shows quite a bit of dry air moving along the southern fringe of the upper low. This may come in and kill storms early than previously thought, just after midnight in the west. However, it is hard to say how this stream of dry air will modify as the low pressure system moves into Colorado and possibly weakens later tonight. CAMs still show some redevelopment of storms in the western Panhandles right around midnight. Seeing some breaks in the cloud cover at this time which will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere a bit going into the afternoon hours. Models are showing some MUCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/Kg during the early parts of the afternoon in the southwestern TX Panhandle. Still unsure about the length of time that severe storms may be possible going into this evening as models show a sharp drop off in instability after 21Z to around 500 to 700 J/Kg. Bulk shear will start off around 30 kts but is looking to pick up to around 50 kts later this evening an H7 jet picks up to 30 to 40 kts after 21Z. With the current bulk shear around 30 kts, and breaks in the clouds in the southwest a hatched hail has been added to the southwestern TX Panhandle by SPC. If the atmosphere doesn`t stabilize much going into the overnight hours this increase in bulk shear may feed a couple of supercells that could produce large hail up to 1.5" even after dark. With continuing on and off convection or cloud cover this afternoon, the overall tornado threat is a bit uncertain. As storms may quickly become elevated. However, models do depict a cold pool or out flow boundary from this morning stuff in the northwest. This may create one if not more boundaries for some quick spin ups if a supercell can form in the right spot along the boundary. Confidence is not very high, but definitely don`t want to rule out a potential tornado in the southwest to south central TX Panhandle this afternoon. This will also depend on how much clearing occurs over the next several hours. A model or two even show soundings favorable for nocturnal tornadoes this evening but this is highly conditional on the fact of where boundaries set up and if storms can remain surface based and not become elevated due to rain cooled air from initial storms. Anything is possible along a boundary though with increased surface helicity. Will state that the tor potential is low at this time with all the caveats in place. The main cold front with actual increase in winds and change in pressure may not show up in the OK Panhandle till closer to sunrise tomorrow or just before sunrise. Winds are progged to pick up to the 20 to 25 mph range with gust up to 35 mph behind the main push. The entire combined Panhandles should see northerly winds up to 20 mph at least by noon tomorrow. PoPs are in place for continued precipitation, mainly in the east for tomorrow. However, much of the combined Panhandles may see either dry slotting from the upper low taking place as well as the front pushing the 50 to 60 dewpoints south out of the area ending rain much sooner than what some models are saying. Tomorrow Max T may very well be in the early AM hours of the morning with temperatures cooling a couple three degrees by the afternoon. Temperatures are looking to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area around 2 pm. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Cool temperatures progged to stick around Mon into Wed with highs in the 70s. Thurs a warming trend may take place with more lower to mid 80s return for daytime temperatures. Another round of precipitation is possible starting late Mon into Tue morning. Upper level troughing is expected to stick around keeping daytime highs mainly below 80 Mon into Wed. Another area of low pressure will potentially dig the present trough south into the combined Panhandles going into Tue morning bringing some possible PVA to help with shower and storm development. There is a bit of uncertainty still to as how the next system will evolve and how much moisture will be in place for an precipitation to come to fruition. Have left NBM PoPs in for now. Wed morning an H5 ridge may start to build in over the Intermountain West. Depending on the eastward progression of this ridge and strength of the upper level trough through Wed will depend on how quickly and the strength the warmer temperatures return to the area for Thu into next weekend. 36 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across the area through the night time hours. How long storms may impact the sites remains uncertain, but it seems KAMA has the higher chances for storms to last through at least 10z. Low ceilings bringing LIFR to MVFR conditions will continue through at least 18z if not 00z for most sites. Cloud cover should begin to clear out around or after 00z and a return to VFR conditions is expected. A cold front will bring gusty north winds to the sites with gusts up to 30 kts expected. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 61 44 75 53 / 30 10 0 10 Beaver OK 59 42 71 46 / 50 0 0 0 Boise City OK 58 40 73 49 / 20 0 0 10 Borger TX 63 45 78 53 / 40 10 0 10 Boys Ranch TX 65 43 77 52 / 20 0 0 10 Canyon TX 62 41 75 52 / 30 10 0 10 Clarendon TX 66 48 75 53 / 60 20 0 10 Dalhart TX 61 42 74 48 / 10 0 0 20 Guymon OK 58 41 72 46 / 40 0 0 10 Hereford TX 64 43 78 52 / 20 10 0 10 Lipscomb TX 62 45 72 49 / 40 10 0 10 Pampa TX 61 44 73 51 / 40 10 0 10 Shamrock TX 67 48 74 51 / 60 20 0 10 Wellington TX 70 50 76 52 / 70 30 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001>004-006>009- 011>014-016>019-317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...05