509
FXUS64 KAMA 231653
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front.
  Storms should stay below severe levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend
will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the
Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south-
southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon.  The flow over the
Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough.  A
vort max is expected to move through this flow and it is expected to
clip our eastern areas Tuesday afternoon.  This vort max coupled
with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and
thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper level trough to our northeast is expected to close off
into an upper level low by Wednesday night and it is expected to get
cutoff from the upper flow.  Then the upper low is expected engulf a
hurricane that moves northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will remain parked over the central
and southern Rockies through the period.  The Panhandles will remain
in a northerly flow between these two upper level features.  This
upper level pattern should keep the Panhandles dry Wednesday through
Sunday and it will keep high temperatures around or just above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period. Winds
will be mostly light and variable through today and most of
tonight. Winds will then turn northwesterly trending toward
northerly by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  84  53  81 /   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  79  49  79 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              50  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  87  53  85 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  84  51  82 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  84  51  81 /   0  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               54  86  55  82 /   0  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 49  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  79  47  80 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                53  85  52  82 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  83  52  80 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   53  83  52  81 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                54  86  55  83 /   0  20  10   0
Wellington TX              55  88  57  85 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...52