103
FXUS64 KAMA 240525
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A few showers and isolated storms are moving across northeast New
Mexico this afternoon. It won`t be out of the question for some of
these to cross the border into either the Texas or Oklahoma
panhandles. At this time, severe weather is not expected. However,
given precipitable water values in the 90th to 97th percentile in
New Mexico and the far western panhandles, these storms could bring
some efficient rainfall in a short period of time. Any storms that
do occur should diminish through the evening.

The main story for the early parts of the week will be the growing
heat across the region. A 593dm upper ridge will become centered
across portions of the Trans-Pecos region and extend across a large
portion of Texas. This will increase our potential for heat stress
starting on Monday across the region, and limiting our rain
potential as well. Highs on Monday should easily reach the upper
90s, many locations flirting with (and some exceeding) the century
mark. At this point, it looks like we won`t be nearing Heat Advisory
criteria as dewpoints will remain in the 50s. That being said,
gusty southwest winds will bring in warmer continental air that
could increase our temperatures higher than currently forecast and
result in the need for a heat advisory, especially for Palo Duro
Canyon. This will be something that is definitely monitored in
later forecasts.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The heat will continue into Tuesday as the upper ridge strengthens
and shifts west into New Mexico. Southerly winds will continue to
bring both warm and moist conditions to the panhandles. Highs on
Tuesday should easily reach over 100 degrees with potential of some
locations, namely Palo Duro Canyon, flirting with 105 degrees. Even
in locations where the air temperature won`t reach that high,
plentiful moisture around thanks to dewpoints in the 60s, should
bring heat indices flirting with or exceeding 105 degrees. This
mainly would be the potential in the eastern Panhandle. It is more
likely that we would need Heat Advisories on Tuesday.

From Wednesday onward through the rest of the week, we remain hot
with temperatures flirting with 100 to 105 degrees each day and
concerns for any heat advisories will need to be assessed through
the week. However, as the upper ridge remains to the west, we do get
chances each day of seeing storms ride down the east side of the
ridge and potentially affect some of our area. The days with the
best potential at seeing storms looks to be Wednesday
afternoon/evening and Friday afternoon/evening into the weekend. In
these cases, a few weak fronts look to come south and interact with
the moisture in place to bring at least isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Looking very far out in the extended, it
will be interesting to watch next weekend. Many operational models
indicate another front coming toward the region, and possibly into
the forecast area. One operational model in particular is also
painting anomalously high precipitable water amounts in the eastern
Panhandle, nearing 2 inch PW values. This will be something to
monitor in trends for next weekend and if there is any validity to
heavy rain with this set-up.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are favored during this TAF cycle. Winds out of
the south are expected with gusts during the daytime hours upwards
of 20 to 25 kts. High clouds will remain over the terminals over
the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  74 100  71 /   0   0  10  20
Beaver OK                 103  73 103  69 /   0  10   0  20
Boise City OK              99  67 100  66 /  10   0   0  10
Borger TX                 101  77 105  72 /   0  10  10  20
Boys Ranch TX             101  74 102  70 /   0  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  99  72  98  70 /   0   0  10  20
Clarendon TX              100  72 100  72 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                100  68 100  66 /  10   0   0  10
Guymon OK                 101  70 103  68 /   0  10   0  10
Hereford TX                98  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  20
Lipscomb TX               101  75 104  71 /   0  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   99  73 101  71 /   0   0  10  20
Shamrock TX               101  74 101  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wellington TX             102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...05