Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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291 FXUS64 KAMA 250520 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - Dry weather with temperatures near to above average is expected through at least Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A longwave trough is in place over the Midwest with a couple embedded shortwave troughs apparently over the Ohio Valley and Central Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front has moved through the Panhandles quicker than anticipated and cumulus clouds have yet to develop anywhere near the Panhandles as of 1 PM. Both factors have decreased confidence in the potential for any showers or thunderstorms to develop in the CWA. Instead, the chance has been shunted further south and the east. The upper-level trough will move east into the mid-Mississippi Valley tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the Panhandles, warming temperatures to near average. The NBM gives the entire CWA a zero (0) percent chance for rain throughout the entire day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A par-for-the-course forecast, with the "course" in question being 2024, is expected for this long-term period and possibly beyond; warmer than average temperatures return with very little to no chance for rain. The longwave trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will cut off from the jet stream and become mostly stagnant over the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley while upper-level ridges flank it to the east and west. This results in a pattern mostly devoid of embedded vorticies in the flow and dry air funneling in from the north resulting in very little to no chance for rain. The main caveat is that if the upper-level trough makes a significant shift west, it could bring the precipitation chances in central Oklahoma closer to the Panhandles. Guidance already does suggest the trough could make a slight shift west sometime this weekend, but it is not nearly far enough west. For now, plan on warmer than average temperatures, possibly with highs in the low-90s, and very little to no chance for rain through this long-term period and possibly beyond. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 No flight restrictions are forecast with this TAF cycle with VFR conditions expected. Light winds will be under 10 kts with clear skies over the next 24 hours. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 82 50 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 81 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 86 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 84 53 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 82 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 83 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 81 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 82 48 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 84 52 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 83 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 82 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 84 53 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 85 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...05