325
FXUS64 KAMA 241830
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

- Dry weather with temperatures near to above average is expected
  through at least Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A longwave trough is in place over the Midwest with a couple
embedded shortwave troughs apparently over the Ohio Valley and
Central Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front has moved through the
Panhandles quicker than anticipated and cumulus clouds have yet to
develop anywhere near the Panhandles as of 1 PM. Both factors have
decreased confidence in the potential for any showers or
thunderstorms to develop in the CWA. Instead, the chance has been
shunted further south and the east.

The upper-level trough will move east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the Panhandles,
warming temperatures to near average. The NBM gives the entire CWA a
zero (0) percent chance for rain throughout the entire day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A par-for-the-course forecast, with the "course" in question
being 2024, is expected for this long-term period and possibly
beyond; warmer than average temperatures return with very little
to no chance for rain.

The longwave trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will cut
off from the jet stream and become mostly stagnant over the lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley while upper-level ridges flank it to the east
and west. This results in a pattern mostly devoid of embedded
vorticies in the flow and dry air funneling in from the north
resulting in very little to no chance for rain. The main caveat is
that if the upper-level trough makes a significant shift west, it
could bring the precipitation chances in central Oklahoma closer to
the Panhandles. Guidance already does suggest the trough could make
a slight shift west sometime this weekend, but it is not nearly far
enough west. For now, plan on warmer than average temperatures,
possibly with highs in the low-90s, and very little to no chance for
rain through this long-term period and possibly beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. A cold
front has passed through KGUY and KDHT resulting in breezy
northerly winds. The cold front is currently projected to move
through KAMA around 1845z, give or take around 15 minutes. Winds
will weaken from the north to south later today, culminating in
light and variable winds tonight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                54  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  50  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              49  81  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              51  84  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  52  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               54  83  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 48  81  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  49  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                52  84  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  82  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                55  84  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              56  85  54  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52