970
FXUS64 KAMA 270904
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Northwest flow will shift more westerly today. Hot temperatures
will still continue, but there will be a little pullback as highs
for most areas will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. That
being said, high dewpoints will still lead to potential heat index
values that will push the low 100s across the south and east. Palo
Duro Canyon still has the potential to hit 105-108 today, and the
potential for mid 70 dewpoints in Collingsworth county supports
the potential for a 105 heat index. Given the more westerly flow
the chances for storms will preside along and north of the I-40
corridor, with the best chances in the northern TX Panhandle as
well as the OK Panhandle. While this continues to be a typical
summertime convective pattern, high PWAT`s, warm temperatures
aloft, good wind producers, we do have a decent 700mb shortwave as
well as a little bit of an enhanced jet along that flow. Given the
surface winds out of the south to southeast, and pretty good
turning from the surface to 700mb we could see an isolated
supercell or two, and the higher dewpoints would support lower
LCL`s as well as higher CAPE values. So the northeast has a decent
chance for a severe storm or two, if we can remain uncapped. Some
high res models are struggling to convect given the decent cap.
Additionally, if we can get that isolated supercell in the
favorable environment, we can`t rule out an isolated tornado.

Friday the high will expand a bit to the east, and while we will
still mostly be in a westerly flow, there will be a slight
southwest component, and warmer temperatures will return.
Also a lee surface low is expected to move across the Panhandles
and that would help push those higher dewpoints to the east, and
reduce/remove the heat index threat. Still, highs could hit 105 in
some areas and we could be looking at more heat products. Pops not
as favorable on Friday with that drier push, but the northeast
still might have a chance at some evening storms.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper level high will gradually expand east over the lower
Mississippi Valley over the weekend and into early next week.
Possible afternoon showers and storms along the northern and
western Panhandles as this transition occurs through Tuesday. By
Tuesday the position of the high will be far enough east to really
pull up that monsoonal flow and bring a good chance of widespread
showers and storms across all the Panhandles. Temperatures
will still be pretty hot with highs in the 90s to lower 100s. Right
now Tuesday looks to be the hottest day with widespread 100s in
the forecast.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Possible
VCTS/TS at KAMA in the next 1 to 3 hours as there are some back
building showers, but for now will deal with that site via
amendments. There is the possibility of some low clouds in the
10-15z time period, but again cig/vis restriction confidence not
high enough, but MVFR fuel alternate possible with a lower
confidence in IFR conditions. From 21z onward, the main focus
would be KDHT and KGUY as there`s a chance we could have another
round of storms impact the terminals. But that will be noted as we
get closer to the 18/00z TAF package, unless confidence increases.
Winds will be light and variable overnight, with breezy winds out
of the south southwest picking up after 15z.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  77 102  73 /  10  20  10  10
Beaver OK                  96  75 102  69 /  30  30   0  40
Boise City OK              94  68  97  65 /  40  30  10  20
Borger TX                 101  80 107  76 /  10  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              99  75 104  71 /  20  20   0  10
Canyon TX                  96  75 100  73 /  10  10   0  10
Clarendon TX               96  76 102  76 /  10  10   0  10
Dalhart TX                 96  71 101  67 /  30  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  95  72 101  67 /  30  30  10  30
Hereford TX                99  75 103  73 /  10  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                96  77 105  73 /  20  20   0  30
Pampa TX                   97  76 102  73 /  10  20   0  20
Shamrock TX                99  77 105  77 /  10  10   0  10
Wellington TX             102  78 105  79 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89