Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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090 FXUS64 KAMA 201703 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Latest 08Z observations across the Panhandles shows a well established fetch of LL moisture with Td values well into the 60s for most locations. Latest satellite also shows upper level moisture transport from Tropical Storm Alberto being caught up in the main H500 anti-cyclonic flow from the main elongated high centered over the Ohio River Valley. The main clockwise flow continues to advect moisture into the area on the western periphery of the H500 high pressure system. This synoptic pattern will dictate the short term forecast period. Highest rain chances (20-30%) will be confined to the southern and western Texas Panhandle where perturbations from the aforementioned synoptic high will favor these areas closest to the main moisture transport over New Mexico. Some thunderstorms could produce some gusty winds. But the main concern will be the potential for localized flooding or flash flooding, especially in areas saturated with rainfall over the past 24-48 hours. Slow moving thunderstorms along with PWAT values in the +2 to +3 S.D. range will aid in the flooding potential. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 80s across the Panhandles. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Hope everyone enjoys the break from 90s and 100s, because they`re on their way back this weekend into next week as high pressure settles in. Occasional storm chances won`t entirely go away though, as we could get some disturbances within zonal flow if the ridge sets far enough south. Moisture will be slightly depleted but not completely scoured out this weekend, with better precip chances staying off to our west off the Rockies, possibly making it into the western Panhandles Sat-Sun. There`s only about a 15-25% chance precipitation survives by the time it reaches our western CWA border, but can`t be ruled out. As previously alluded to, highs this weekend will start to rebound in the 90s to around 100 in a few spots by Sunday. The weekend will just be preheating the Panhandles, because widespread 100s appear possible Mon-Wed. Warming 850mb temps should peak on Tue, when highs could exceed 105 in a few locations. With all the ground moisture in place from recent rains, heat index values may be even higher, potentially warranting head advisories. Troughing over northern CONUS looks to displace the core of high pressure to our west next week, allowing northwest flow to return. Northwest flow will also maintain daily slight chances at storms, as moisture content improves once again. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 All the TAF Sites are VFR to start the 18 UTC TAF period. Scattered SHRA moving northwest could pass near or through any of the TAF sites this afternoon and evening, bringing a brief period of broken low ceilings, although confidence is too low to include in the TAF, even at KAMA, which has the highest chance. Guidance suggests that MVFR CIGS will develop at KAMA and KDHT early Friday morning, and not out of the question that KGUY could see low stratus as well. Southerly surface winds should pick up this afternoon becoming sustained around 14-20 kts for a time before diminishing this evening. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...LUB