Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
219 FXUS64 KAMA 180533 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Another chance at showers and thunderstorms presents itself today as we see a short-wave trof brush across the Panhandles later this afternoon. This short-wave will allow for a weak dry line to push back into the western potions of the Panhandles and act as a potential boundary for storms to develop and break the present cap. Should something develop and stay sustained, there is enough ingredients present for any thunderstorms to turn severe with last CAMs still presenting 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with effective bulk shear around 35kt in places. While this will be enough to see large hail develop in a thunderstorm, the bigger concern may fall in the damaging straight line wind category. Currently models are seeing at least 1800 J/kg of DCAPE present for the afternoon and evening time frame, which is a good indication of strong outflow and down burst winds with potential present to see gusts upwards of 70 mph. Meanwhile, the present breezy to gusty surface winds will look to hold through the evening hours as the lee-side surface low holds just off the Southern Front Range. Expect winds to stay southerly to southwesterly for most of the day, which will also aid in keeping temperatures warm and in the mid to upper 90s. As for Tuesday, similar circumstances will look to be present as another short-wave trof moves though and keeps the dry line east of where it has been for the last couple of weeks. Once again, expect the boundary to be our main point initiation for storms that afternoon, with many of the CAMs favoring the northern Panhandles as our best chances for development. However, many models are trending towards a much stronger cap to be in place for the afternoon, which has made our best chances only be 20 to 30% for the afternoon. Regardless should something actually develop, MLCAPE is expected to be better with some of the north seeing values above 2000 J/kg that afternoon. However, shear is looking much weaker at this time with models only placing around 25kt in those same areas. This lack of shear may make it hard for storms to stay sustained long enough to develop large hail, but damaging winds could still be present, especially with DCAPE reaching upwards of 1900 J/kg. Otherwise, expect similar breezy to gusty conditions to exist tomorrow as well. These winds could potentially create elevated to low-end critical fire weather conditions for far northwestern portions of the Panhandles. However, confidence in this very low given the recent precipitation in the area as well as the potential precipitation that may fall that day. Scoleri && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For Wednesday through Sunday, medium range models and ensemble members suggest the upper level ridge will expand westward to encompass the southern states from Arizona to Florida as the western states upper level trof weakens and translates eastward across the north central states. That said, the overall strength of this upper level ridge will dictate how much moisture, if any, advects northwestward into our area from expected development of a possible tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. The latest 12Z medium range models and associated ensembles have continued to trend more towards a stronger upper level ridge which, if progged correctly, would act to steer the potential tropical system more westward as opposed to northwestward during the Wednesday through Friday time period. If that occurs in a manner similar to yesterday`s 12Z ECMWF, then the deep moisture may remain well south and southeast of our forecast area without much of a northwestward component and, therefore, a reduced threat for showers and thunderstorms. Latest NBM pops have trended down a a bit from 24 hours ago and may be reflecting latest model trends. Therefore, have sided with the NBM pops for Wednesday through Sunday. Expect further refinements to the forecast during the coming days as models begin to converge on a common solution regarding the upper level pattern and eventual strength of the progged sprawling high pressure for the middle to latter part of this week. 02 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Aside from overnight LLWS, VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period. A 50 kt LLJ is set up over much of the Panhandles tonight, with breezy 20-30 kt winds at the sfc, allowing for some LLWS to exist. This will gradually go away this morning as the LLJ subsides. Winds stay breezy out of the south tomorrow, and a few thunderstorms will be possible again mainly near KAMA and KGUY. Confidence is low, but thunderstorm mentions may be needed in later TAF issuances. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 92 69 85 64 / 10 20 20 30 Beaver OK 95 69 88 64 / 10 30 40 30 Boise City OK 98 60 84 61 / 10 20 50 50 Borger TX 97 71 91 66 / 10 20 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 97 69 89 65 / 10 20 30 40 Canyon TX 92 68 85 63 / 10 10 20 30 Clarendon TX 89 68 84 63 / 10 10 10 20 Dalhart TX 98 63 86 61 / 10 20 40 50 Guymon OK 97 65 87 63 / 10 30 40 40 Hereford TX 94 69 87 64 / 10 10 20 40 Lipscomb TX 93 69 88 65 / 0 20 30 20 Pampa TX 90 69 86 64 / 10 10 20 20 Shamrock TX 92 69 85 65 / 10 10 10 20 Wellington TX 92 70 85 66 / 10 10 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...38