291
FXUS64 KAMA 250520
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

- Dry weather with temperatures near to above average is expected
  through at least Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A longwave trough is in place over the Midwest with a couple
embedded shortwave troughs apparently over the Ohio Valley and
Central Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front has moved through the
Panhandles quicker than anticipated and cumulus clouds have yet to
develop anywhere near the Panhandles as of 1 PM. Both factors have
decreased confidence in the potential for any showers or
thunderstorms to develop in the CWA. Instead, the chance has been
shunted further south and the east.

The upper-level trough will move east into the mid-Mississippi
Valley tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the Panhandles,
warming temperatures to near average. The NBM gives the entire CWA a
zero (0) percent chance for rain throughout the entire day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A par-for-the-course forecast, with the "course" in question
being 2024, is expected for this long-term period and possibly
beyond; warmer than average temperatures return with very little
to no chance for rain.

The longwave trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will cut
off from the jet stream and become mostly stagnant over the lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley while upper-level ridges flank it to the east
and west. This results in a pattern mostly devoid of embedded
vorticies in the flow and dry air funneling in from the north
resulting in very little to no chance for rain. The main caveat is
that if the upper-level trough makes a significant shift west, it
could bring the precipitation chances in central Oklahoma closer to
the Panhandles. Guidance already does suggest the trough could make
a slight shift west sometime this weekend, but it is not nearly far
enough west. For now, plan on warmer than average temperatures,
possibly with highs in the low-90s, and very little to no chance for
rain through this long-term period and possibly beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

No flight restrictions are forecast with this TAF cycle with VFR
conditions expected. Light winds will be under 10 kts with clear
skies over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  82  50  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              81  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  86  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  53  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 81  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  82  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                84  52  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   82  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                84  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              85  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05