Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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791 FXUS64 KAMA 201137 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 637 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 - Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Sunday with some of the storms having the potential to be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary hazards in addition to heavy rainfall. - Record breaking high temperatures are likely today with afternoon high temperatures near or just over the century mark. - Additional thunderstorm chances are forecast early to mid next week. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Another day of record breaking high temperatures is forecast for today for portions of the Panhandles. For areas in the west and north, rain chances return to the region with a low potential for a strong to severe storm across the north central/northeast. A more active day weather wise is likely on Saturday with cooler temperatures and widespread chances for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Early this morning, a plume of higher H700 theta-e resides across the eastern TX Panhandle into Oklahoma and has generated a few showers/storms that have since moved into western Oklahoma. Additional storm development is currently not expected for the Panhandles this morning. Lows on this Friday morning should be in the upper 50s to the northwest to low 70s to the southeast. High pressure is forecast to remain across much of Texas today with a strong H500 low pressure system slowly moving across California towards the southern tip of Nevada by this evening. With high pressure in place today, another hot day is very likely as H850 temperatures warm up to near 30 Celsius by peak heating this afternoon. These hot temperatures will lead to some locations reaching the triple digit mark once again, with record breaking temperatures likely at Amarillo and Borger for today. Further west and northwest for the Panhandles, cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast due to increasing cloud cover into the afternoon hours out ahead of a shortwave trough embedded in the upper level flow. This shortwave will provide ample lift to generate showers and thunderstorms across the area of higher mid level moisture. DCAPE values may be upwards of 1500 J/kg per forecast soundings which would be favorable for strong downburst winds, so a few strong to severe storms will be possible today. Shower and thunderstorm chances should wane around midnight as the shortwave exits off to the northeast. The upper level low will move closer to the Panhandles on Saturday and should be located near the Four Corners region by Saturday afternoon. The synoptic lift provided by the low pressure system will aid in generating showers and thunderstorms across NM and TX late Saturday morning through the night. Some of the storms will have the potential to become severe, but there are uncertainties with the overall severe threat. Cloud cover due to the abundance of moisture will limit daytime heating across the west and northwest, which may result in less instability for this area. The best chance for a strong to severe storm looks to be across the southwestern Texas Panhandle, where the highest MLCAPE values are forecast to be along with plentiful shear. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats if a discrete supercell is able to make it into the Panhandles. The more impactful concern may be heavy rainfall associated with the thunderstorms. PWAT values are forecast to be above the 90th percentile and multiple rounds of showers and storms are possible through Saturday night. The Panhandles have been very dry as of late so that may limit the potential flash flood threat, but urban areas will still be prone should enough heavy rainfall move over these locations. Details and model trends will need to be monitored over the next day with regards to the severe and flash flood threats. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Sunday through next work week looks to feature near average temperatures and off and on precipitation chances. Model guidance deviates by early to mid next week with regards to potential temperatures and precipitation chances. The upper level low pressure system that brought the precipitation chances to the region on Saturday should be centered around northeastern Colorado come daybreak on Sunday. Plentiful moisture should remain across the area and with any subtle lift provided by the low pressure system before it moves too far away should generate some showers or storms during the daytime hours on Sunday. With persistent cloud cover in place over the CWA on Sunday, cool afternoon highs in the 60s to upper 70s are currently forecast. A surface cold front is forecast to propel southward over the Great Plains during the daytime hours and should move through the Panhandles by Sunday evening. Northerly winds behind the front are almost guaranteed as the front moves through with gusts potentially as high as 30 to 35 mph. This cold front will usher in cooler air which will aid in keeping the aforementioned daytime highs on the cooler side. The synoptic pattern varies tremendously with the 20/00z suite of ensemble guidance past Monday. The general consensus is that temperatures should stay near average with the potential for precipitation for some locations across the Southern Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday. Muscha && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Main aviation concern with this TAF cycle will be thunderstorm chances at KDHT/KGUY. Thunderstorms may move over these sites which would result in potentially gusty winds and reduced visibility, have included PROB30 groups given this potential. Otherwise, winds will mainly be out of the south to southwest over the next 24 hours with gusts up to 25 kts at the terminals. Mid to high level clouds will continue to move across the region through 12z tomorrow. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 98 68 88 60 / 10 10 60 80 Beaver OK 99 68 88 56 / 30 20 60 90 Boise City OK 88 61 75 49 / 40 20 80 90 Borger TX 101 69 93 60 / 20 20 60 80 Boys Ranch TX 95 65 85 57 / 30 20 80 90 Canyon TX 96 66 88 59 / 10 10 60 80 Clarendon TX 100 68 92 62 / 0 10 30 60 Dalhart TX 88 61 76 52 / 40 30 80 90 Guymon OK 95 65 83 53 / 40 20 70 90 Hereford TX 96 66 88 59 / 10 20 70 80 Lipscomb TX 101 71 93 60 / 20 20 40 70 Pampa TX 97 68 90 60 / 10 10 50 80 Shamrock TX 100 69 95 64 / 0 0 20 50 Wellington TX 103 70 96 66 / 0 0 10 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05