529
FXUS64 KAMA 251740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Main headline over the coming days will continue to be the heat
due to widespread temperatures near or just above 100 degrees
across the Panhandles. Some relief from the heat may come with
showers and storm chances across the region both this evening and
again tomorrow. A few of the storms could be strong to severe
today, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the primary
concerns.

A few light decaying showers remain across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle early this morning. Some sprinkles or light rain may
still fall out of these showers along with gusty winds (as seen at
the Adrian mesonet) but otherwise no impacts are expected this
morning. Morning lows should be a couple of degrees warmer than
the last few nights as surface moisture is increasing across the
area with southerly to southeasterly winds.

The H500 ridge is forecast to build across the western CONUS up
through the Rockies today into tomorrow. Before the ridge switches
the upper level flow to northerly on Wednesday, northwest flow is
expected today across the Panhandles. With low level and surface
winds out of the south to southwest, WAA will continue to be
strong across the region and surface temperatures will soar into
the upper 90s to just over the century mark this afternoon. With
dew points in the upper 50s to potentially low 60s across the
east, heat index values are forecast to be a few degrees higher
than the air temperature for the east. With air temperatures and
heat index values near or over 105 degrees today, have expanded
the Heat Advisory a bit further west for this afternoon. If clouds
develop or showers/storms form a bit sooner than currently
expected, temperatures may struggle to warm up to the currently
forecast highs, so that will be something to watch for throughout
the day today. A weak shortwave embedded in the upper level flow
is forecast to move across the Southern High Plains late this
afternoon into this evening. Sufficient CAPE along with weak shear
may allow for a few storms to become strong to severe, with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. There could be a few
instances of large hail, but with mid level temperatures warming
up, the potential for large hail is beginning to decrease.
Additionally, moderate to heavy rainfall may occur with these
storms as PWAT values may be as high as 1.25 to 1.5 inches by mid
afternoon. Storms may last for a couple of hours this evening
before dissipating by the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday across the Panhandles
with temperatures in the mid 90s to just over the triple digit
mark. Areas further north should be a few degrees cooler than
today as a very weak front moves across the region early Wednesday
morning. With temperatures being a few degrees cooler, currently
not expecting as widespread of Heat Advisories for Wednesday. Only
exception looking to be Palo Duro Canyon at this time, as
temperatures across the south still look to be near or over the
100 degree mark. Another disturbance moving across the Rockies
into the Plains on Wednesday should be enough to kick off another
round of showers and storms beginning across the higher terrain
late Wednesday afternoon. How far east the storms are able to get
off of the mountains remains a question mark at this time, so have
kept NBM PoPs for the western Panhandles. The threat for any
severe thunderstorms appears low at this time, however, isolated
strong to damaging wind gusts along with moderate to heavy rain
cannot be ruled out this time of year. Overnight lows both tonight
and Wednesday night will provide little relief from the heat as
lows are forecast to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Once again little change was made to the long term periods compared
to what was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago.
The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the overall
dominant feature in our weather pattern from Thursday through Monday.
A weak cold front may move across the region on Saturday and could
temporarily bring slightly cooler temperatures for this weekend
before increasing again early next week. Otherwise, given the
strength of this ridge, high temperatures across many locations
will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees Thursday, Friday and
Monday. Heat Index values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at
times, most likely on Friday across parts of the area, and additional
Heat Advisories may be needed on that day. Precipitation chances
from Thursday through Sunday evening will strongly depend on the
strength of the upper level high pressure, its axis location and
resultant steering flow for storms, and how long our forecast
area sits beneath it. Nearly all medium range models continue to
indicate periodic meandering of the ridge axis from west to east
during the extended periods. The latest NBM pops and temperatures
are reasonable based on the forecast synoptic pattern and were
accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions will be prevalent at all sites, although a
scattered storm or two is possible later this afternoon and
evening at KAMA after 21z. KGUY and KDHT could also catch a stray
storm, but confidence is quite low for these sites. Winds are out
of the southwest at KAMA with occasional gusts of 25-30 kts,
while winds are more variable at KDHT and KGUY near a sfc trough.
Winds will turn out of the north towards the end of the period
when an outflow boundary moves through.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70 101  71  99 /  30  10  30  10
Beaver OK                  68  96  70 100 /  10   0  30  10
Boise City OK              67  97  67  97 /  10  40  40  20
Borger TX                  71 105  75 105 /  30  10  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              69 103  72 101 /  30  20  40  10
Canyon TX                  68 100  71  98 /  20  10  30  10
Clarendon TX               70  99  73  99 /  20  10  20   0
Dalhart TX                 67 100  68  98 /  10  30  50  10
Guymon OK                  67  96  70 100 /  10  10  40  10
Hereford TX                70 102  72 100 /  30  10  30  10
Lipscomb TX                70  98  72 101 /  20  10  30   0
Pampa TX                   70  99  72 100 /  30  10  30   0
Shamrock TX                71 101  74 101 /  20  10  10   0
Wellington TX              74 103  74 102 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     014-015-018>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38