536
FXUS64 KAMA 010525
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Clouds have lingered across the Oklahoma and northern Texas
panhandles from the early morning convection. This has kept
conditions much cooler up there with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 70s in the Oklahoma Panhandle and some lower 80s in northern
Texas Panhandle. Further south, the stalled front from yesterday is
quite evident on satellite imagery. It is located roughly along a
line from Nara Vista to Panhandle to Allison.  Residual cloud debris
has left conditions cooler to the north of this line, whereas along
and south temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s. Cumulus
development has been ongoing through the early afternoon along and
south of the boundary and in the last hour or so, some showers and
storms have developed in the eastern Panhandle across portions of
Gray and Wheeler counties. At this point, we are not expecting these
to become severe but this will be something to monitor this evening.
Storms that occur this afternoon should diminish by sunset with
convection not expected to linger overnight.

Global models are in agreement that the mid level ridge should once
again meander its way toward the region, but remain centered just to
our east. This will allow us to have the effects of the increasing
temperatures but still open the door to some brief relief in spots
due to showers and storms. Temperatures tomorrow should approach the
century mark but many locations likely will far short. Of course,
this won`t apply to places like Palo Duro Canyon, which should see
temperatures exceed 100 degrees but currently falling short of Heat
Advisory level. To our west, an upper trough will approach, bringing
showers and storms to New Mexico. By late afternoon, several models
and hi-res CAMs indicate that they could meander across the state
line into my western forecast area, especially as the low level jet
begins to kick in during the evening hours. Have included low/slight
chance POPs in the forecast to account for this potential.

Culin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The upper right will begin to shift back to the east during the day
Tuesday. Low level winds will shift out of the southwest, increasing
low level temperatures on Tuesday to near 40C. This will equate to
highs in the low 100s across much of the region.  Will be watching
out for potential Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon especially on
Tuesday as temperatures will exceed 105 degrees in this location. It
looks like the heat peaks on Tuesday as another front shifts south
toward the Panhandles starting Tuesday night. This will increase our
rain chances Tuesday afternoon/night through the week. As it stands,
we are under a marginal risk for severe storms Tuesday. With such
hot temperatures in place Tuesday afternoon, any storm that develops
would have potential to bring damaging wind gusts given forecast
DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg.

Another front looks to drop south for Thursday night into Friday,
remaining in the area for Saturday and keeping rain chances in the
forecast during this time period. Since this is a holiday week, and
many outdoor activities are in play, residents should keep aware of
the weather situation heading through the week as there are daily
chances for rain and storms in the forecast. Severity will be
assessed through the week but would assume there will be potential
during this time period.

Culin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Surface winds look to less during this overnight period with all
terminal seeing speed down around 10 to 15 kt. Winds do look to
eventually pick back up tomorrow thanks to a 850mb jet overhead.
KGUY will be the first to see this increase with gust upwards of
30 kt possible at the terminals by the afternoon. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms also are present tomorrow evening with
KDHT having the best chances of any impacts. However, confidence
is too low for any mention at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should hold through the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                75 101  73  94 /  10  10  30  30
Beaver OK                  76 101  69  90 /  10  20  40  30
Boise City OK              70  95  64  86 /  30  20  30  30
Borger TX                  78 106  74  97 /  10  20  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              75 102  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
Canyon TX                  73  99  71  93 /  10  10  30  30
Clarendon TX               74 100  74  97 /   0  10  20  20
Dalhart TX                 70  99  66  91 /  10  20  30  30
Guymon OK                  74  99  67  88 /  20  20  40  30
Hereford TX                73 101  71  95 /  10  10  30  30
Lipscomb TX                77 103  72  95 /   0  10  30  20
Pampa TX                   75 101  72  95 /   0  20  30  20
Shamrock TX                75 103  75 100 /   0  10  10  10
Wellington TX              76 103  77 101 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...11