159
FXUS64 KAMA 300911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
411 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure will gradually strengthen and slowly shift east this
week. For today, most of the moisture will be pushed off to the
north and be limited to the OK Panhandle. However, there is a
little impulse wave late this morning to early afternoon that
could trigger off and isolated storm or two in the central to
eastern Panhandle. As the high strengthens and centers over
central OK tomorrow, south to southwest flow will prevail, as well
as lower dewpoints. This will make it difficult to achieve
convection with daytime heating on Monday. Overall, today`s highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s, with temperatures warming into
the upper 90s to lower 100s on Monday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tuesday will be a pretty warm day, and we may even need some heat
products. High pressure will be a bit further east and an upper
level trough will be approaching from the Four Corners. Strong
heating with ample forcing from the upper disturbance will help
spark off mid to late afternoon showers and storms. Should storms
manage to kick off earlier then some areas may not achieve the
lower 100s potential that exists from full daytime heating. Still,
a pretty hot day across the board for the Panhandles.

Upper trough will begin to suppress the ridge off to the east and
promote more of a west southwest to nearly zonal flow to the
Panhandles. Return monsoonal moisture will still be available to
most of the Panhandles and that will bring another chance of
showers and storms on Wednesday. Temperatures in the northwest
will be a bit more tame as cooler air will be in place on the
back side of the upper trough and we`ll likely be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

Thursday high pressure will begin to rebuild over the west and we
do expect some hot temperatures to return to the Panhandles. We
do have another upper trough approaching and if that speeds up
that could change the temperatures to be a bit cooler. But right
now hot temperatures with evening to overnight storms possible in
connection with that next upper trough. Given the setup of the
upper trough, it looks like it will deepen and continue a somewhat
northwest flow regime for Friday, and we could be dealing with on
and of storms from Thursday night through Friday night, and even
into Saturday. NBM highs on Friday and Saturday support this with
higher in the mid to upper 80s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Low clouds may be working their way to the KGUY and KDHT terminals
over the next few hours. MVFR to borderline IFR cigs will be
possible through about 15z. Thereafter conditions should start to
improve. East wind around 10-15kts expected through about 18z as
the winds will start to veer to the southeast. While thunderstorms
are possible from the 06-12z time period, the confidence is low
and the timing is too uncertain to include at this time. If storms
look to impact terminals, will deal with via amendments.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                94  72  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  85  71  99  76 /  40  10   0   0
Boise City OK              89  68  96  71 /  40  10  10  10
Borger TX                  97  75 103  78 /  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              96  73  99  75 /  10  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  93  71  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               93  72  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 93  68  98  70 /  20  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  89  70  98  74 /  30  10   0   0
Hereford TX                96  71  98  73 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                89  73  98  77 /  30  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   92  72  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                95  73 100  75 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              97  75 100  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89