135
FXUS63 KAPX 261021
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
621 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a few showers/storms east of I-75 this afternoon.

- Quiet weather expected to occupy the majority of the long term
  period. Chances of showers and storms return Friday night.

- Additional shower chances return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Mid/upper-level jet will remain draped over the region through the
period as an embedded shortwave pivots across the Great Lakes this
morning/afternoon. Forcing aloft provided by this wave will aid a
surface pressure response along a lingering front draped across the
lower peninsula later today as these features progress eastward into
tonight. Surface high pressure then looks to build from the northern
Great Plains/central Canada into the Great Lakes by Thursday
morning.

Forecast Details:

Chance for a few showers/storms this afternoon -- Quiet weather will
persist across northern Michigan through most of this morning with
mostly to partly sunny skies to start the day. At least some uptick
in cloud cover is expected as the aforementioned wave moves overhead
this afternoon. Enough near-surface convergence may be generated in
the vicinity of the lake breeze to initiate a few showers and storms
this afternoon. Rain/thunder chances should mainly be confined east
of I-75, and highest closer to the Lake Huron shoreline. Severe
storms are not anticipated with any activity that develops today.
Rain/thunder chances will diminish this evening as high pressure
begins to build in, leaving mostly clear skies and weak winds in
place tonight. This should promote efficient cooling after sunset,
leading to seasonably cool overnight temperatures in the low to mid
40s for many interior areas. Those closer to the lakeshores are
expected to see lows around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Midlevel flow continues to remain over the northern half of the
continental U.S. Aformentioned flow will begin to build a longwave
ridging pattern over the Great Lakes region for the first half of
the forecast period. Surface high pressure will result in quiet and
dry weather ahead of a shortwave trough that will return chances of
showers and storms to the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Quiet weather expected to occupy the majority of the long term
 period. Chances of showers and storms return Friday night: The
 long term period starts of quiet and dry as aformentioned
 surface high pressure will result in sunny skies this Thursday
 with temps near climatological average. Shortwave troughing
 currently over the Pacific will ride along midlevel flow making
 its way to the Great Lakes region by Friday night. Impactful
 weather from this system remains pretty low primarily due to
 guidance showing weak shear and low CAPE at this time. Friday
 into Saturday shows evidence of potential heavy rain being the
 main focus as PWATs are at climatological max`s for late June.
 WPC currently has parts of the CWA in a marginal excessive
 rainfall outlook, but still a little to early to message QPF
 mainly due potential of energy diving south of the CWA.
 Regardless, showers and storms Friday night into Saturday can
 be expected at this time.

-Additional shower chances return next week: Another midlevel
 trough currently over the Gulf of Alaska progresses its way to
 the Great Lakes region around the Tuesday timeframe while
 developing surface low pressure lee of the Rockies. Chances of
 showers and storms return to the Great Lakes region around the
 Tuesday timeframe. Impacts remain low at this time, but will
 continue to monitor this feature with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
issuance period. BKN/SCT mid cloud this morning will begin to clear
this afternoon and evening, leaving clear skies in place tonight.
Mainly northwest winds between 5-10 kts will gust to 15-20 kts into
this evening, becoming weak/calm overnight. A few showers/storms
will be possible this afternoon across northeast lower Michigan, but
are not expected to impact TAF sites at this time should they
develop.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...DJC