786
FXUS63 KAPX 271454
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1054 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm days through Monday

- Brief rain chances early next week, with cooler air after

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft are expected to
keep remnant tropical moisture south of the region today on into
the weekend. Light and variable winds at present will pick up a
little out of the northeast this afternoon (still only 10 to 15
mph). Temperatures today similar to yesterday with highs in the
mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Pattern/synopsis: 1017mb high pressure is over Georgian Bay and
adjoining parts of Ontario. Skies are mostly clear here, outside
of some patchy stratus, mostly in eastern upper MI. The
outermost cirrus associated with TC Helene has reached the Thumb
and Tri-Cities areas.

Forecast: Surface ridge gets squeezed a bit northward today and
this evening, as Helene races northward (before slowing late
today/tonight). The pressure gradient tightens significantly
late today in southern sections...though not as much as
downstate. This will result in somewhat breezy e to ne winds
late today into tonight, in more exposed locales south of M-32
(especially near Lk Huron).

Most substantial fog to this point is along and south of the
M-55 tier of counties, along with western Chip/Mack Cos in the
eastern UP. Will be keeping an eye on early-morning fog trends
of course, but not much of the fog is dense to this point.
Conditions will quickly improve after sunrise.

Cirrus will only make uneven inroads into se sections thru the
evening, with a better push of mid-high clouds into that area
late tonight. Limited cloud cover otherwise. No risk of precip
this far north.

Max temps mid 70s to near 80f. Lows tonight near 50f thru the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

By Saturday, what is left of Helene will have merged with an upper
low creating a deeper low with tropical moisture centered over
western KY/TN. This will lead to very efficient rainfall over the
states to our south (IN/OH/IL) this weekend. Up here, high clouds
will likely move in from the south Saturday as east to northeast
winds are breezy. Low end chances for light rain near Saginaw Bay
Sunday, however CAMs and most guidance now keep higher heights aloft
over northern MI and blocks any attempt of this upper low from
reaching farther north. During this time, temperatures will be warm
(mid 70s in the afternoon for most locations) with breezy winds.

Early next week, an upper wave moves across southern Canada and
deepens across the northern Midwest as a surface cyclone takes
shape. The surface low will be in Canada to our north as the upper
trough moves overhead, however the cold front will extend down into
the central plains. Rain chances will be seen along the frontal
boundary, but the ~1020mb sfc high will move in cooler and drier air
for mid week next week. Higher confidence is seen with this
solution, as run to run deterministic solutions are starting to
align as well as ensembles members.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Might still be a shot at a touch of fog over the next hour or
so. But otherwise comfortably VFR today and this evening, with
higher pressure overhead. A bit of an easterly breeze will pick
up late today at MBL/TVC/APN, and will be maintained tonight.
That will limit fog potential at those sites. PLN/CIU will have
a better chance for fog overnight tonight, but for now will not
include.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ