Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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564 FXUS63 KAPX 161857 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 257 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to elevated fire danger at times this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Abnormally high heights extending from New England westward into the Great Lakes will continue to dominate the weather picture through Tuesday (and well beyond). This will continue to result in mostly clear skies, very warm daytime temperatures and surprisingly comfortable nighttime temperatures. Guidance is a few degrees cooler Tuesday for highs but still think it will reach into the mid and upper 80s. Tonight will likely be a little cooler than last night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Light and variable winds through the period. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 243 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Pattern Forecast: Above normal heights are expected to continue through much, if not all, of the long term forecast period. Combined with attendant surface high pressure dominating, above normal temperatures with little to no chance for precipitation will be the rule through the week ahead. Just beyond the end of the forecast period, latest trends do support at least some low precipitation chances, although certainly lots of time to sort out details for nearly 10 days from now. Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather is anticipated for midweek through the weekend. Daily high temperatures through the work week largely in the low-mid 80s -- cooler near the lakeshores. Trends favor highs cooling a touch this weekend into early next week, but still mild 70s and low 80s for the last half of September. Fire weather concerns appear to be greatest early this week, but still some potential for afternoon RHs to fall into the 30-40% range across interior areas of northern lower. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Stagnant weather pattern continuing over the next couple of days (and beyond) with high pressure leading to mostly clear skies and light winds. Although can not totally rule out patchy ground fog tonight, continued drying from the lack of rainfall and warm days will make any fog formation a tough chore. Therefore, VFR cigs/vsbys are expected through the taf period. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJS LONG TERM...MJG AVIATION...AJS