Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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684 FXUS63 KAPX 200345 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated storms thru tonight - Not as hot with shower/thunderstorm chances continuing thru the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 955 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Cold front is now draped across Northern Lower Michigan. Several areas of relatively weak convection continue to develop along and ahead of this front...impacting portions of our CWA. Intensity of the convection has diminished with loss of diurnal instability. Rest of the night will continue to feature scattered showers and isold storms as this front gradually drops SE thru our CWA and into Southern Lower Michigan. Noticeably cooler air is filtering into our CWA in the wake of this front. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s and lower 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the low to mid 60s for areas along and south of M-72. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Feature of note will be a cold front this evening with a cooler airmass behind as winds shift to a more northerly component. Sfc high pressure builds to the north-northwest of the region into Thursday. Meanwhile, heights aloft remain quite anomalously high for this time of year. Few showers and storms expected through the period due to a combination of the frontal feature and the moisture axis shifting south Thursday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Frontal boundary/cooler airmass works into the region tonight as winds decrease but also shift around to the north/northeast. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well but due to the combination of modest instability and shear, only general thunderstorms expected. Thus, brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns. High pressure builds to the north of the region Thursday, as cooler and drier air works into the region. This will shunt 60+ degree dewpoints generally across the southern portions of northern lower Michigan, likely where the best chance for isolated convection will remain. Very well could be some showers or a storm or two farther north (indications are into the E UP), but the unstable air will more or less remain south of Gaylord Thursday afternoon, thus not much of a concern. Temps will be much cooler overall, with 70s and 80s across much of the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Energy currently evident on water vapor imagery across southwest Canada teams up with tropical moisture from the south to likely spin up surface low pressure as we head toward and into the weekend. Meanwhile, the strong upper level ridge that has brought the hot weather to the region over the last few days will reorient itself farther south and west with time early next week. Obviously, a few moving parts involved and how they all interact across the region is the biggest question. Overall, expect increasing chances for showers and cooler temperatures through the weekend. Low amplitude troughing then sets up across the region early next weekend before increasing ridging takes over once again later in the week. So seasonably warm temperatures early next week could morph back into another heat wave later in the week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Cold front currently extending from Eastern Upper Michigan thru Green Bay into NW Illinois will drop thru Lower Michigan tonight into Thursday...weakening as it does so. Areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact mainly Northern Lower Michigan tonight into Thursday. Prevailing conditions will remain mostly VFR/high MVFR for the next 24 hours... occasionally dropping to lower MVFR within heavier showers and storms. Winds will remain northerly at around 10 kts. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...MLR SHORT TERM...JLD LONG TERM...AJS AVIATION...MLR