571
FXUS63 KAPX 241752
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms expected late tonight into Tuesday.
  Marginal chances of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

- Additional chances of active weather return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Patchy morning fog and low clouds quickly succumbing to the
early summer sun. High pressure will work across the area today,
resulting in those sun-filled skies and near normal temperatures
in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

     Dry thru this evening...then showers and storms develop late
tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...There is a chance for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms late tonight...mainly west of I-75.

Pronounced upper level trough axis and surface reflection continue
to push eastward away from our CWA early this morning. Low level
ridging is building into Wisconsin and Northern Michigan...bringing
remaining shower/storm chances to an end...with a gradual diminish
in cloud cover taking place from west to east attm.

Upstream high pressure will continue to build over our state
today...providing plenty of sun and pleasant summertime temps into
the evening hours. Afternoon highs will warm mainly into the upper
70s to lower 80s.

Clouds will begin to increase right around sunset in advance of our
next relatively fast-moving low pressure system pushing into the
Western Great Lakes. Latest near term models suggest increasing
chances of showers and storms associated with this system will
likely hold off until well after midnight. Will steadily increase
POPs from west to east across our CWA between 06Z and 12Z. A strong
to marginally severe storm is possible overnight...especially for
areas west of I-75...but at this point it appears the best chance
for severe storms will be south of our CWA where much stronger
instability develops late tonight. Overnight lows will cool into the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Long Term ... (Tuesday through Sunday)

Weak midlevel shortwave troughing over the northern Great Lakes
Region will continue chances of active weather at times before
upstream ridging eventually moves into the area and builds surface
high pressure. A second trough over the coastline of British
Columbia will quickly progress across North America and continue the
pattern of showers and storms at times to the CWA.

The first aformentioned trough will make its way to Michigan at the
start of the long term (while weakening). Surface low pressure will
develop lee of the Rockies, retuning showers and storms to the CWA.
Conditions will turn dry by the middle of the work week thanks to
longwave ridging building heights into the Upper Great Lakes.
Chances of active weather return heading into the weekend as
yet another trough digs across the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Showers and storms expected this Tuesday. Marginal chances of
 severe weather and heavy rainfall: Aformentioned surface low
 pressure with attached frontal boundaries will provide enough
 lift to generate showers and storms this Tuesday and tapering
 off Tuesday night. SPC remains to keep the CWA under a marginal
 risk for severe weather mainly due to evidence of an MCS moving
 across the midwest supported by moderate amounts of effective
 shear, decent mixed layer CAPE, and strong buoyancy to produce
 cells. Main hazards are hail and strong gusts but a tornado
 cant be ruled out. Still a little too early to pinpoint impacts
 and locations, but a few warnings this Tuesday is definitely in
 the realm of possibility. As for QPF, amounts will be not uniform
 due to the convective nature of the setup, but a general half
 inch or so can be expected. PWAT`s remain near the 90th
 percentile of climatological max, so localized areas could see
 higher accumulations over an inch of total rainfall.


-Additional chances of active weather return this weekend:
Aformentioned riding is set to build Wednesday and Thursday
resulting in surface high pressure with temperatures below average
for late June. An additional trough will progress to the Great Lakes
Region by the Friday/Saturday timeframe returning chances of showers
and storms. To early to message impacts or potential rainfall
amounts, but best chance of active weather for the entirety of the
long term will remain at the beginning and end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Only concern is expected arrival of showers and embedded
thunderstorms, along with MVFR producing low clouds, from west
to east across the taf locations later tonight into early
Tuesday morning. Plenty of uncertainty remains with regards to
overall shower/storm coverage and intensity...with growing support
most organized and intense storms pass across southwest lower
Michigan. Will convey this uncertainty through vicinity thunder
wording for now. If a north trend materializes, then stronger
storms will be capable of producing brief very gusty winds and
heavy rain. Slow improvement expected as we head through later
Tuesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB