Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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229 FXUS63 KAPX 151737 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower chances return late tonight. - Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long term forecast period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 1024mb surface high centered to our northeast over Ontario this morning. Return flow increasing to our west between this...and energy over the Plains with attendant decaying MCS in the Mid MS Valley pumping out gravity waves per WV imagery. Weak bit of a warm front to our northwest over Manitoba/W. Ontario...north of a subtle PV max crossing MN in the right entrance region of an 80+kt upper jet lifting through. This latter feature also has some attendant mid clouds and radar returns,though unclear attm how much of this is making it to the ground across the WUP, similar to yesterday morning`s WI niblet that ultimately tossed a few sprinkles NW Lower`s way. We are drier this morning than yesterday (pwat on the 12z sounding of 0.56in, lower than yesterday and definitely running below the mean for mid June), and did have a chilly night with lows generally in the 40s (a few upper 30s in the typical colder spots). Temperature recovery seems to be quick, though, with temps already into the low 60s in spots...and somewhat quicker mixing than perhaps anticipated in spots, noting gusts of 10-20kts already across the area. High pressure to continue to pivot away, with increasing return flow expected later this afternoon/evening. Think mid/high clouds will remain present over the area, esp the EUP through the morning, and eventually into NW Lower more this afternoon/evening. Not as clear on surface based cu, given somewhat drier profile than yesterday...particularly if we mix high enough to tap into some of that drier air aloft above 850-800mb...and will likely bump winds/gusts up a few kts or so for the daylight hours as a result. Will keep an eye on temp trends today...esp for downslope favored sites (in south/southeast flow, TVC, etc)...in case things need to be adjusted upward before thicker cloud cover increases later this afternoon. May also have to keep an eye on sprinkle potential over the EUP with that mid cloud deck slipping southeastward into the Soo attm...as there have been some showers with that further north along the Lake Superior coast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Troughing continues to slide east of the Great Lakes and over New England today as ridging works overhead. Subsidence provided at the ridge/trough inflection point will keep building surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes eastward as well. A weak shortwave lifting across the Midwest later this evening/tonight looks to provide sufficient forcing aloft to support an area of relatively low surface pressure that will trek west of Lake Michigan into Sunday morning. Forecast Details: Shower chances return late tonight -- Quiet weather is in store for northern Michigan once again today with high pressure centered overhead, leading to sunny skies through the afternoon. Cloud cover will begin to spread from west to east across the area this evening as the aforementioned shortwave and associated precip lifts across the Midwest. Low confidence exists at this time, but slight chance PoPs are included in tonight`s forecast as some showers from this system may work into Michigan overnight and saturate dry profiles sufficiently for some rain to reach the ground before more better rain chances arrive after the period. Otherwise, temperatures look to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s for many areas today with cooler temperatures in the low 70s anticipated across northeast lower and the eastern U.P. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 359 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Shortwave midlevel troughing over the northeastern CONUS will continue to move downstream while upstream longwave ridging continues to builds across the rest of North America. Attention for the long term period remains next week as aforementioned ridging will drive high temperatures across the Great Lakes region well above normal. Midlevel height disturbances riding along the baroclinic zone will continue chances of showers and storms at times next week potentially impacting the severity of heat across the CWA. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Increasing potential of dangerous/extreme heat bulding across the region next week. Chances of showers and storms are expected to continue at times through the entirety of the long term forecast period: A well advertised heat wave is set to commence next week at the start of the long term and continue through the entirety of the forecast period. Southwest flow will advect a hot humid air mass from the Gulf and build temperatures into the mid/upper 80s next week, with the warmest days expected to be Monday and Tuesday (with highs potentially reaching well into the 90s). Convection driven by lingering atmospheric moisture and some height disturbances along the aformentioned ridge is expected to develop from time to time this week. The baroclinic zone is expected to remain well to the northwest of the CWA, but convection can still fire off from potential outflow boundaries or lake breezes. Subsequent thunderstorms leave some uncertainty with daytime high temperatures as low level mixing along with cloud cover could inhibit diurnal heating. Nevertheless, the majority of the long term will remain well above normal and uncomfortably warm. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR ceilings/visbys expected through the TAF period. Do think ceilings around 7-10kft are likely at times tonight into Sunday, however, esp along and west of I-75. Slight chance for rogue sprinkles/showers near KCIU, and esp. KTVC, KMBL through the afternoon though have left this out of the TAFs attm given lack of confidence in rain making it to the ground through tonight...perhaps even into part of Sunday, though moderate confidence in development of rain/storms Sunday afternoon (perhaps even as early as 6-12z Sunday) that could track through the region...though more likely after this TAF period ends. Have left ts out of TAFs attm, but will need to monitor this, esp if anything develops over WI this evening. Other primary concern will be increasing winds tonight/Sunday...becoming generally SSE around 10kts gusting 15- 25kts, esp by Sunday AM...again, along and west of I-75. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...FEF SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...FEF