534
FNUS53 KAPX 231934
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...Seasonable Temps with Heavy Rain Threat Monday Night/Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...
A few showers through this evening could produce a few lightning strikes.
Otherwise...generally quiet weather is expected Monday as high pressure
moves through...with highs in the 70s to low 80s; warmest in the usual
west-flow downslope areas between Gladwin/Atlanta and the Lake Huron
coast. This is also where it should be driest, with min RHs Monday
afternoon in the 35-40 percent range. Winds should generally be light,
remaining 5-10mph, picking up Monday night into Tuesday from the south.
Heavy rain threat exists Monday night into early Tuesday...along with
some storms. Tuesday could be warmer, with highs potentially into the
80s, though if clouds/rain linger, it could stay cooler than expected...
but will likely be muggy either way.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-240830-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (324).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.23 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (697).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.20 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-240830-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    until 2400, then isolated rain showers.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (53).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (332).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms. Chance of
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (865).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.18 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-240830-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 15 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (291).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.37 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (617).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.20 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-240830-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (329).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.37 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (651).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.21 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-240830-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
334 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms and isolated rain showers until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (42).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (403).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.13 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (957).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.18 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

FEF