302
FNUS53 KAPX 160803
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Multiple Rounds of Showers/Storms Possible into Tonight...

.DISCUSSION...Ongoing showers will depart the area to the northeast over the next
few hours, leaving a several hour break in rain chances this morning
before a second round of showers arrives early this afternoon.
Additional showers/storms will be possible after this round of
showers exits later this evening into tonight. South winds of 10-15
mph will gust to around 20-25 mph at times into this evening. Highs
in the upper 70s to mid 80s are anticipated for most areas south of
the bridge. Minimum RHs in the 30-40 percent range are expected this
afternoon with the potential for localized areas east of I-75 to see
RHs dip into near-critical thresholds before afternoon showers
arrive. Looking ahead, hot and humid weather is in store through the
first half of this week.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-162030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200Scattered rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (696).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.14 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms until 2400,
                    then chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 32 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.80 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....90-95...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 22 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (677).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.35 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (699).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer...except 13 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.74 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....92-97...except 78-83 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.30 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-162030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (677).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.28 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer...except 8 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (66).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.17 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....90-95...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 9 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (834).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.27 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-162030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (714).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.25 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......16 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 24 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (74).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....89-94...except 82-87 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (961).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.49 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
403 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1016).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Slight chance of showers after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (56).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....92-97.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1299).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.17 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 70.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.JUNETEENTH...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

DJC