Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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093 FXUS63 KARX 081905 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler to end the weekend with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday. - Warming trend for the second half of next week with temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching the mid 70 to mid 80s for much of the local area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers and storms from the morning have continued to push off to the east this early afternoon. Behind this, satellite imagery shows cumulus developing across the region with a bit perkier cu developing across northern Wisconsin/U.P. Radar mosaic shows showers and even a few storms developing in this area, which a few of the hi- res models were picking up on earlier with building instability and steep low level lapse rates. Have maintained some small shower and isolated storm chances mainly to the north across north-central WI into the evening before drier conditions return overnight. Otherwise, highs remaining a tad bit cooler in the upper 60s to mid 70s to end the weekend. The area remains under broad cyclonic flow aloft into Sunday with various shortwaves passing through. Moisture increases slightly Sunday, but latest hi-res model guidance does not appear to be too excited in bringing in much for precipitation chances. Will not completely rule out a few diurnally driven showers, especially if we are able to get a bit more instability than models are currently suggesting. For now have not made any significant changes to the ongoing forecast which leans a bit drier, but will need to continue to monitor for any updates/increase in shower/storm chances that may be needed Sunday. Showers/storm chances increase for Tuesday. Warming trend for Tuesday onward next week with temperatures trending above normal;highs reaching the mid 70 to mid 80s for much of the local area: Forecast soundings show drying later Sunday night through Monday night, however rain chances increase again Tuesday morning. Will need to assess valley fog chances Monday morning with winds decreasing winds and moisture in the boundary layer. Moisture transport increases across the Plains Monday Night as a 500mb trough tracks across Manitoba/Northern Plains. Moisture transport continues eastward across the forecast area during the day. Southwest surface winds increase with a warm front lifting north and ahead of a cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability appears limited with the initial showers/storms and about 25 to 35kts of deep layer shear. During the afternoon MLCAPE is progged to increase 250 to 1500J/kg with 0-1km shear of 10 to 30kts and deep layer shear of 40 to 50kts. We`ll need to look closer at the severe weather potential as we get closer to Tuesday due to the potential for increasing instability/shear with the cold front pushing through. Ridging tries to re-develop for Wednesday, however another ripple in the flow could produce a few showers or storms. The timing is still somewhere between Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night and could last into Thursday. In addition, a wave to the north Thursday night could bring isolated rain chances into the area. Again, a ridge builds in for Friday behind this wave. Beyond this period, there is low confidence due to large differences in the synoptic pattern. Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures from the 70s to the mid 80s are forecast through the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Current satellite imagery this early afternoon shows some cu developing behind the departing morning rain showers. VFR conditions are currently forecast, though some short periods of MVFR look to be possible this early afternoon. VFR conditions will then prevail through the rest of forecast period. Winds become more northwest and will increase/become more gusty into the day on Sunday. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMS/Zapotocny AVIATION...EMS