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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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669 FXUS63 KARX 080959 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will continue through the morning. Low chance (10 to 20%) of thunderstorms, mostly in northeast Iowa. - Near or slightly below normal temperatures through early next week. Warming trend for the second half of next week with temperatures trending above normal with highs reaching into the 80s for much of the local area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today through Monday: A couple of shortwaves continue to move through the Central US today. One shortwave is in the Central Plains while the other is in Great Lakes region. The Great Lakes system is the one that is responsible for the current showers over the area this morning. A cold front associated with this shortwave will help to prolong these showers through the morning hours. There is also decent moisture convergence at 850 hPa to work with. The second system has a moderately strong low level jet associated with it. The strength of this jet is aiding the moisture transport as well as providing a little instability. With this instability there is a low chance of thunderstorms, mostly in northeast Iowa. All in all, rain totals of up to 1/3" are possible along and north of I-90. For areas south of I-90, rain totals around 0.1" will be possible. After these systems exit the region on Saturday, the rest of the weekend and early next week will have a couple of shortwave troughs move through while the more broad longwave trough shifts eastward. This cyclonic flow will help to bring in some diurnal instability allowing for a shower or two to occur especially for late Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures for the weekend and early next week will be near or slightly below normal, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the low 70s. Tuesday through Saturday: Ridging moves into the area on Tuesday and flattens out as the week progresses. Mixing in with the ridge will be a couple of shortwave troughs that bring the area its next chance for precipitation, one on Tuesday and the other on Thursday. This is reflected in ensemble guidance where roughly 60 to 80% of both ECMWF and GEFS members support precipitation on both of these days. After these disturbances move through, ensemble and deterministic guidance have the ridge strengthening heading into next weekend. Temperatures through this coming week approach the low to mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday as good warm air advection moves into the region via southwest flow. Heading into next weekend, northwest flow manages to come back within this ridge and will help to keep temperatures from trending well above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 CIGS: latest meso/short term guidance now favoring keeping any MVFR cigs this morning south of the TAF sites, and will trend the forecast this way. VFR deck then looks to scatter out moving into the afternoon with mostly SKC conditions through the night time hours. WX/VSBY: widespread showers this morning, powered by an upper level shortwave. Some thunder threat (20%) mostly for northeast IA. Could see brief drop into MVFR vsby with any moderate shower, but for the mostly part +6SM is expected. WINDS: northeast to variable this morning before setting in to more northwest this afternoon with passage of cool front. Generally 10 kts or less, but could see a few afternoon gusts into the upper teens. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cecava AVIATION.....Rieck