026
FXUS63 KARX 251950
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
250 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dewpoints and humid conditions to decrease by Wednesday.

- Next chance for precipitation (60 to 80% chance) Friday into
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Tonight into Wednesday Night: Humid Conditions Slowly Diminishing

After this mornings temperatures were still well into the 70s and
even low 80s for some across the area, dew points this afternoon
still remain in the 60s to 70s across the area. A few showers are
moving through SE MN into wern WI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are
expected south of the local area tonight under hot, humid conditions
along a boundary through IA. There is a slight chance (15%) a few
storms make it as far north as Charles City east to Guttenberg,
otherwise the better chances (40-60%) remain to the south of that
line. There is a lesser chance (10%) of some showers north of I90
tonight, but any organized threat of severe weather is not expected.

On Wednesday, expect dewpoints to diminish through the day under
northerly flow. Breezy conditions with winds in the 10-20mph range
are expected, with a few gusts up to 25mph possible west of the
Mississippi. High pressure moves overhead for Wednesday night with a
cooler night expected as temps fall into the mid 50s for most, with
a few upper 40s possible in the cooler, sandy soil locations near
Black River Falls.

Second Half of the Week: Thunderstorms Return Friday, Heavier Rain
Possible (up to 30% chance for exceeding 1 inch of rain)

High pressure shifts east of the area on Thursday, with ridging
building across the area on Thursday into Friday. Southerly flow
increases Thursday night into Friday, with PWATs building as high as
2 inches across the local area. Medium range ensemble guidance
suggests a 15 to 25% chance for rainfall exceeding 1 inch in our
local area, with chances increasing up to 40% near Davenport. The
best forcing remains off to our north across northern ND and MN,
with precipitation chances in our area tied to a cold front passage.
Will need to wait for future fcst updates as right now it appears
that the best upper level forcing remains displaced from the better
instability. If better heating and instability can build across our
area ahead of the sfc low pressure system and cold front passage,
there could a few strong to severe storms, but it`s too early to
call at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with sct to bkn
middle level clouds expected throughout the period. A few showers
are possible at either TAF site this afternoon (10-20% chance).
However, no category reductions are expected with these as they pass
through. Otherwise, winds will increase from the northwest by 18z
tomorrow to around 10-15 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Several rivers fell below flood stage over the last 12 to 24
hours, but most of this water is still on route to the
Mississippi River. The Mississippi River is expected to keep
rising through the next 5 to 7 days depending on location and
which rivers route into that particular location. Minor to
moderate flood stages are expected from Lake City through
Guttenberg. While official forecasts from the River Forecast
Center do take into consideration all of the water that has
already fallen and is on its way into the Mississippi River, it
only takes the next 24-48 hours of forecast precipitation. Since
the next chance of precipitation for the local area is not until
Friday, this will not be accounted for in the official
forecasts.

The forecast rain on Friday will likely keep the river elevated
beyond the next 7 to 10 days and the river may initially fall
some before beginning to rise again as the additional rainfall
flows downstream this weekend into next week.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JAW
AVIATION...Naylor
HYDROLOGY...JAW