901
AXNT20 KNHC 170543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HEAVY RAINFALL in Central America and in Mexico...and GALE
WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure and cyclonic wind flow cover the
northern parts of Central America and southern Mexico. The
environmental conditions for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
appear to be conducive for subsequent gradual development of the
area of low pressure. It is possible that a tropical depression
or a tropical storm may form by the middle of the week, while it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. The chance of
development into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium.

This weather pattern is known as a Central American Gyre (CAG),
and it often persists for several days. This weather pattern will
cause life-threatening conditions that include flooding and
mudslides. The cyclonic circulation is producing strong SW
monsoonal flow in the eastern north Pacific Ocean. Abundant
tropical moisture will move northward into the coastal terrain of
Central America and southern Mexico. The pattern is expected to
persist in northern Central America and in southern
Mexico, through at least the middle of this week. The threat to
life and property will increase as the event persists. The main
areas that will be impacted by the heavy rainfall will be:
northwest Nicaragua, southwest Honduras, and coastal sections of
Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of
Chiapas and Oaxaca. Heavy rainfall is possible also in:
Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco, Veracruz, northeast Queretaro,
northeast Hidalgo, and San Luis Potosi this week.

The persistence of the moist pattern will create very hazardous
conditions in the region that could be life-threatening. Please,
refer to your local meteorological office bulletins for more
detailed information.

For mariners in the Gulf of Mexico: the developing broad low
pressure will support increasing winds and building seas in the
Gulf of Mexico through the middle of the week. Expect rough seas
to 8 feet starting tonight in the south central Gulf. The seas
will build more through Monday. The wind speeds will increase to
minimal gale force to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula early in
the afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby
precipitation is closer to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to
the east of the tropical wave, and within 210 nm to the west of
the tropical wave. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate is elsewhere within 630 nm to the east of the
tropical wave

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N30W 06N38W 06N40W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N40W, to 06N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 300 nm of Africa between 07W and 19W;
and within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 25W
and 40W. Isolated moderate is from 10N southward between 40W and
50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
on the possibility of heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula,
Tabasco, Veracruz, and parts of Queretaro, Hidalgo, and San Luis
Potosi this week.

A Central American Gyre currently is in southern Mexico and
Central America. Strong SE winds, and moderate seas, are
elsewhere between 84W and 93W. Moderate or slower winds are in the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the SE Gulf.
Slight to moderate seas are in the northern one-third of the area.
Slight seas are in the SW quadrant. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 95W eastward.

A broad low to middle level cyclonic circulation, also known as
Central American Gyre, is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. The gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting W to WNW into the SW Gulf
of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms across the SE Gulf, along
with increasing winds to gale- force and rough seas, are expected
to shift over the W Gulf with this system early this week.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical cyclone
to develop from this broad circulation, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the potential for heavy rainfall in the Yucatan Peninsula this
week.

A Central American Gyre currently is in southern Mexico and
Central America. Strong to near gale-force SE winds, and rough
seas, are in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are in the SW
corner of the area. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are between 64W and 80W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area.

The monsoon trough extends from Belize to 15N80W, to 11N75W at the
coast of Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 16N to 20N between 79W and 82W, and off
the coast of Colombia from 10N to 11N within 30 nm on either side
of 76W.

A Central American Gyre is currently over southern Mexico and
Central America. The gyre center is expected to persist through
the middle of this week, while shifting W to WNW into the Gulf of
Mexico. The resultant pattern will continue to produce fresh to
near gale-force SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the NW Caribbean this evening, then shift across the Gulf
of Mexico tonight through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
trades over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to
fresh speeds on Wed and prevail through Fri evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 31N65W 28N71W. A second surface
trough is along 30N62W, to the SE Bahamas. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from Hispaniola northward
between 50W and 74W.

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 35N38W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 60W eastward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 25N northward from 20W eastward.
Fresh NE winds are from 21N northward between 20W and 30W.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 08N to 20N between 45W
and 52W. Fresh SE winds are from 05N southward between 28W and
35W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 10N to 14N between
54W and 60W, around the 57W/58W tropical wave. Moderate or slower
winds cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Slight seas
are from 20N northward from 52W westward. Moderate seas cover the
rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persist in the
vicinity of a surface trough extending from 30N60W to near the
Turks and Caicos. The trough will shift eastward early this week.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will reach fresh speeds N of 25N
and west of 60W by Mon morning, as high pressure builds in the
wake of the trough. A new trough, or an area of low pressure, is
forecast to form a few hundred miles northeast of the central
Bahamas in a couple of days. Environmental conditions could be
conducive for some development of this system thereafter while it
moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to
approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or
Friday. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas will develop across the waters N of 25N Mon night through
Thu.

$$
mt/al